Tuesday, November 29, 2016

The Calm Before the Storm

Whats up losers.  Here we sit, one week away from the end of the college football regular season and our first massive update of the year.

I missed last week due to the short week, but I'm back with power and pain today.


Quick note, Shawn won the bonus in the pick'em last week with 25 correct predictions.  That's Shawn's 3rd win out of 4 weeks for bonus points.

This week was Folden winning for the 4th time this season.

Overall, we're going to see some bonus points paid out next week.  Shawn has a 3 game lead over me, and a 7 game lead over Folden at 3rd place.

It's pretty safe to say that Shawn is good for either 1st or 2nd in the college pick'em, with either 60 or 40 points going his way.

I'm at 126, Folden 122, Joe and Colin 121, and Munez 119.

There are only 8 games on the slate this week, so there isn't a ton of room to make moves.

Pro Pick'em continues to be tight.

Gary has a 1 point lead over Geiss, 2 over me and Joe, and 3 over Colin.  Eplin had a particularly bad week falling from a share of the lead to 5 back and in 6th place in the overall pick'em.

This is the last week of the 10 point bonus.  After this we will have 5 points the rest of the way out.


Ah, the game that never ends.  Week 11 brought us another victim as Folden took KC and lost. Folden gets 20 points for coming in 3rd.  That brought Rob and I to week 12 as the only people left in the league.  I took the NYG and he took the Saints, both of us surviving.

That puts him with 1 strike going into week 13, and me with no strikes riding a 23 game survivor streak going back to last year.


So, we aren't going to get into any pro predictions this week, but we will talk about a couple of College Predictions.

Appalachian State has won at least a share of the Sun Belt, which earns 20 points for Folden, Joe, Munez, Colin, Rob, Hale, and Eplin.  If Arkansas St wins this weekend they will earn a share as well for Shawn and Geiss.

Gary, Jim, and I are out of that conference. Arkansas St also plays Texas St who is 2-9 on the year, so ya know...Figure it out.

Additionally, Tennessee & Notre Dame are looking like locks to finish out of the Ap top 25.

This will give 20 points to Me, Jim, Shawn, Folden, Joe, Colin, Geiss, Eplin, and Gary.

As of now, none of our unranked teams we picked to finish in the Top 25 are in the top 25.  Boise St is knocking on the door, which would give 20 points to Shawn, Folden, Rob, and Hale.  But, with them being off this week, it may be difficult.

The Conference Championships are this week and this what the schedule looks like

De Facto Big 12 Championship Game
Oklahoma Vs Oklahoma St

Oklahoma winning would keep them alive for a chance at a playoff appearance, which helps a lot of people.  Also, a win would give everyone 20 points but Jim for the Big 12 championship.

PAC 12 Championship
Colorado vs Washington

A win for Washington would give Pac 12 points to Me, Shawn, Joe, Munez, and Hale.  A loss helps everyone else out.  Noone had Colorado or Washington in the playoff

Big 10 Championship Game
Wisconsin vs Penn St

Everyone had either Michigan or Ohio State winning the Conference.  So, noone will get Big 10 points this year.

SEC Championship Game
Alabama Vs Florida

Alabama is favored by like 25 points, so it could be a blow out.  Eplin, Hale, and Rob are the only people to not have Alabama winning this Conference.

ACC Championship
Clemson vs Va Tech

Munez and Eplin were the only two to keep Clemson out of the ACC Championship, everyone else will get point if Clemson wins.

MAC Championship
Western Michigan vs Ohio

9 people had Western Michigan winning the MAC.  Munez and Gary had Ohio.  Geiss had Bowling Green and is the only person without a chance.

Conference USA

Western Kentucky VS Louisiana Tech

Many people had Southern Miss and Marshall.  Rob, Hale and I had Western Kentucky.

Mountain West

San Diego St vs Wyoming

Me, Shawn, Colin, Geiss, and Eplin have a shot with San Diego St this weekend.   Everyone else had Boise and are out of it.

Most of the College Football Awards finalist have been released, except the Heisman and Lombardi award.  As usual, most of our predictions have lost, but there are a couple dangling out there

Doak Walker, Dalvin Cook, picked by Me, Shawn, and Folden.

Thorpe Award, Tre'Davio White, picked by Folden.

Butkis Award:  Rueben Foster, picked by Geiss

Maxwell Award: Baker Mayfield picked by Joe and Folden.

No word yet on the AP Coach of the year, Lombardi or Heisman finialists.


Here are the current standings with 1 week to go.

*1. Jim 9-3
*2. Rob 8-4
*3. Jim 8-4
4. Colin 7-5
5.  Shawn 7-5
6. Gary 7-6
7. Adam 6-6
8. Hale 5-7
9. Munez 5-7
10.  Geiss 4-8
11. Eplin 4-8
12. Folden 2-10

Jim, Rob, and Joe are clinched for sure.  They are playing for 1st round BYE in playoffs.

Shawn and Colin are locks as well.  All they'll have to do is basically field a lineup and they would win.

Gary's 6 seed is the only one up for grabs.  It breaks down like this.  If Gary wins he's in.

If Gary loses, I win, and I outscore Gary by 52 points, I'm in.  So Gary's about a 98% sure thing as well.

Week 13 matchups:

Jim 9-3 vs Eplin 4-8
Jim locks up a first round bye with a win.

Gary 7-5 vs Hale 5-7
Gary needs a win or a general strong showing.

Rob 8-4 vs Geiss 4-8
A win pretty much locks up a Bye for Rob

Joe 8-4 vs Munez 5-7
Joe needs a win and a little help for a Bye week.

Colin 7-5 vs Folden 2-10
Colin is a lock for playoffs and can still get a Bye with a win, and a Rob and Joe loss in which Rob doesn't outscore Colin by more than 30 points.

Adam 6-6 vs Shawn 7-5.  This is the only game of two teams at .500 or better so let's go ahead and call it the game of the week.  Shawn can get a bye with a win and a Rob, Joe, and Colin loss.  or by outscoring Colin by 40 points.
I need to win and to get help from Gary.

Total Points

This is going to be our last update before things get wild, so let's get a point update

Fantasy wins + Pro pick'em + college pick'em + (pick'em bonus) + [Survivor Pool] + Predictions

Folden will have his 20 points in the survivor pool added in here.  All three of us will have our 10 point bonus for making past week 9.  This also won't have any of the predictions added in.  Will wait til next week and go from there.

Rob 80+100+108+[10]+20
Joe 80+109+121+(20)+40
Colin 70+108+121+(20)+40
Shawn 70+103+129+(30)+20
Gary 70+111+116+(20)+20
Adam 60+109+126+(15)+[10]+20
Hale 50+92+105+20
Munez 50+103+119+20
Geiss 40+110+117+20
Eplin 40+106+112+(10)+40
Folden 20+104+122+(40)+[30]+40

1 Joe 370
2. Colin 359
3. Folden 356
4. Shawn 352
5. Adam 340
6 Gary 337
7 Rob 318
8 Jim 308
8 Eplin 308
10 Munez 292
11 Geiss 287
12 Hale 267

A couple of notes.  These points are really indictitive of the standings as much as they are just a total of what has been earned.  Some people got 20 points for winning the Sunbelt, while Geiss & Shawn didn't, but could easily have it next week.

Folden's point total includes his survivor 3rd place, while Rob & mine doesn't include ours, although at the least we will have 40 more points.

Also, the college predictions are coming through next week.

There are a total of 320 potential College prediction points that will be finalized next week.
There is a 60, 40, & 20 point college pick'em bonus that will be resolved next week.
There is a 60 and 40 point survivor pool bonus that could be issued out any week now.

And that doesn't include anything with the NFL that's going to start and resolve in the next couple of weeks.

So...the point is.  Noone is safe, noone is behind.  The 2nd half of Football God IX starts next Monday.

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