Crunch Time

We've reached championship week in college football, so for the first time I'm able to close out a lot of people's picks.  And, I'll tell you this guys.  We did pretty shitty.  Taking anything Alabama or Clemson out of the mix, and we did below average at best.  I"m attaching the spreadsheet to the the facebook page for you guys to be able to compare.

Amazingly, Munez still has a chance to get all 4 of the final four correct.  He's the only person who can boast that at this point.  John, Kemp, Gary, Rob, and Voyten all have the ability to get 3 but they all have Georgia and Alabama.

Conference champions are similar.  Munez & Kemp have the lead with the ability to get 7 of the 10 conferences correct.  Gary, Shawn, Me, John, & Hale have 6 possibles.  Everyone else has 5 or 4.

The only predictions we can say safely at the moment are the Top 10 team to fall out of the Top 25 prediction.  Those of us that said Miami, Auburn, or Wisconsin are safe.  That's me, Folden, Rob, Joe, Gary, Eplin, & Kemp.

The Coaches that will get fired are pretty much settled as well.

Shawn & I said Lovie Smith, who got an extension, so that ain't happening.

David Beatty, Larry Fedora, DJ Durkin, have gotten everyone else points.  I'm still waiting on a decision to be made about Bob Davie in New Mexico for Kemp.

The finalists for the awards have been released too, but we'll go over those next week.

The Pro Predictions are starting to formulate, but I'll go over those next week too, once we're at the 3/4 point in the season.

College Pick'em is down to the last week of the season.  There are 8 games to choose from, and the separation at the top is only 1 game.  Munez sits at 137, with John at 136.  Folden has an outside chance at 134.  Probably a better chance for 2nd.  Those 3 will finish top 3, with Eplin 4 back of Folden.  The rest of us need to jockey for position for the final standings on this one.

Pro Pick'em is tight as well.  Three games seperate 2nd thru 6th, with Munez sitting in first by a few games.

No changes in the losers or survivor pools last week.  Only a few weeks to go.

Bonus Points

I had the highest score in fantasy earning a bonus point, while Joe was the highest scoring losing team, earning 0.5 bonus points.
Jim & John earned the bonus points for the pick'em last week.  Joe, Rob, & John also earned a bonus point for making it 4 more weeks alive in the losers pool.

So, this may be confusing, but I'll type out the bonus points up to this point, and also attach the spreadsheet.

Fantasy Football Bonus Points

Hale 7
Adam 5
Jim 3.5
Joe 3
Folden 2.5
Munez 2.5
Eplin 2
Rob 1.5
Shawn 1.5
Gary 1
John 1
Kemp 0.5

Pick'em Bonus

Munez 5.5
Kemp 4.5
Folden 4
Gary 2.5
Jim 2
John 2
Eplin 2
Joe 1.5
Rob 1
Hale 1
Shawn 0
Adam 0


Pool Bonus

Rob 3
John 3
Joe 3
Munez 2

Bonus Point Standings

Munez 10
Hale 8
Joe 7.5
Folden 6.5
John 6
Rob 5.5
Jim 5.5
Kemp 5
Adam 5
Eplin 4
Gary 3
Shawn 1.5

After next week I'll be able to mock up our standings overall for the first time, this will be a category inside of this.


This is our final week of the regular season of fantasy football.  And, this shit is full of drama.

Joe put up 160 points and lost, and the things that happened below him were enough to lower his playoff chances.

Folden beat Munez in a tight game that now has him in the playoff picture and Munez outside.

Eplin lost a tight one to Hale knocking him out of the picture.

Rob won his 3rd in a row getting back into the playoffs.

Shawn won on a 97 yard TD run by Lamar Miller on Monday night that not only saved his season, but kept Kemp on skid row at an unreal 0-12.

Here's our final week scenario.

First round byes locked in

Adam 10-2
Hale 9-3

It's pretty amazing at this point in the year that Hale and I are seperated by only 5 points.  We both have 200 points more then the next closest team to us.  Pretty dominant so far by both of our teams.

3.  Joe 7-5
4. Folden 7-5
5. Shawn 7-5
6. Rob 7-5
7. Eplin 6-6
8. Munez 6-6

Joe vs Gary
Folden vs Adam
Shawn vs Hale
Rob vs Kemp
Eplin vs John
Munez vs Jim

It's pretty unreal that none of the 6 of you play each other.  So, scenarios.

Obviously if 3-6 win they are all in.  Or any of them win they are in.

If Joe and/or Folden lose and Eplin wins then the point tiebreaker will come into play. 65 points separates the 3 of them. Eplin passing one of those two is the only way those 2 don't end up in the playoffs.

Shawn & Rob are in a more dangerous situation, as Munez can pass them as well.

If Rob and/or Shawn lose, and Eplin wins, he's in.  He has the tie breaker.  If Munez wins there are 30 points seperating Munez, Shawn, and Rob.

So, Eplin's hoping for 1 of 4 teams to lose, and for him to win.  Munez is hoping for 1 of 2 teams to lose and win his game.

Gary, Jim, and John are still playing for 9th -11th.  Kemp clinched dead last many weeks ago.  I actually will give you guys an overall point update.  Just so you can see how volatile it is.

At this point read the point link in the facebook post.
					9	3		32

Obviously most of those numbers can change.  I have 12 for being in first in fantasy but that could go down to 9.  Joe, who has 10 points in fantasy could go down as far as 6 by next week. 

The pools that are still going on, I took the median number of what the person's high and low was.  So for instance, Joe, John, and Rob's range in the losers pool is 12-10, so I gave them each 11 for this projection.  

These scores also don't include college predictions, pro predictions and the bowl games.  

But now you get a sense of how the scoring works.  Where all previous years was an accumulation of points, this is an evolution of points that can change as we go.  The only points set in stone here so far are about half of the losers pool and survivors pools.  And of course Kemp being in dead last in fantasy football.

See you next week.

Short Update - 11/20/2018

Short work week, short update.  Let's start with the survivor/ghoul pool.

Some dominoes did fall this weekend, but from only one game.  Denver's come from behind victory over the chargers knocked me and Munez out of the losers pool.  Munez is guarenteed 4th place.  I get 9th place.  Rob & John still haven't lost a game yet, and Joe is now guarenteed at least 3rd.  Here's how the points stand.

12-10 Rob, John, Joe
9 Munez
8-5 Folden, Hale, Jim, Shawn,
4 Adam
3 Eplin
2 Gary
1 Kemp

Survivor claimed a couple of people as well.  Jim & Shawn had the Chargers.

The points in this now stand as follows.

Rob 12
11-7 Adam, Joe, Hale, Eplin, Folden
5.5 - Jim & Shawn
4 Shawn
2.5 Kemp & Munez
1 Gary


In fantasy football we have 2 weeks left in the season.  Here's where things stand

1. Adam 9-2 (clinched playoff spot)  The only person that can stop me from a bye is Joe, and I'd have to lose out and Joe would need to jump the 182 point difference from us.  98% likely I have a bye.

2. Hale 8-3 (unofficially clinched playoff spot)  Hale's in.  I can't see an avenue in which he loses.  He is now 1 win away from clinching the other bye.  Would need to lose out and have Joe win out to lose out on it.

3.  Joe 7-4 (90% chance in playoffs)  Joe has a 1 game lead on everyone and the point tiebreaker on everyone but Eplin.  Even if he loses out, he'd be tied for 6th. 

Here's where things get wild.  4th-8th are all tied at 6-5 with two games to play.  So we'll go over those after we cover the bottom 4 teams.

9-11th Jim, John, Gary.  They are effectively playing for who can have the most points in the final standings.  9th gets 4, where 11th only gets 2. 

12th Kemp.  0-11.  Time to see if he gets a win in his final 2 games.

Back to the teams that are 4th - 8th.  Where do they each stand? along with their remaining schedule

4.  Eplin - 1443 points (Hale, John)
5. Folden 1381 points (Munez, Adam)
6. Munez 1296 points (Folden, Jim)
7. Shawn 1266 points (Kemp, Hale)
8. Rob 1264 points (Jim, Kemp)

Folden & Eplin are in the best shape, having scored as many points as they have.  Truth be told, Munez & Folden are playing in a likely elimination game this weekend.  Let's project.

If Eplin loses to Hale, he'll fall to 6-6.  One of Folden or Munez will be 6-6.  One will be 7-5.  Shawn & Rob each winning would keep all 5 people still in the mix for next week.  Amazingly, none of the 5 play each other in the last week of the season.  There's no way as of now to figure out a likely path for how things will go.  We could end up with 4 6-6 teams or 4 7-5 teams next week.  Some people need to route for Hale to win, some need to route for Jim.  It's pretty much insanity.

If you had to put a gun to my head, based on schedule, and the way things have gone, I'd have Eplin, Munez, and Rob getting the 3 spots.  But, who the hell knows. 

That's it for now. 

11-13-18 Update

Tis the season where the updates nearly come weekly.  Let's get into what changed from last week and see where we go.

SURVIVOR POOL

Not much changed this week.  Losers pool everyone was victorious and the survivor pool had a blip on the radar.  Shawn chose the Falcons, which turned out not to be a very good pick, as the Browns decimated them.

So, we still have Rob & John without a loss on the year, Joe & Munez with one loss fighting for the top spot. 

After that we have 5 people fighting for 5th place. 

Survivor Pool is still a race for 2nd place.  7 people remain.  Hale, Folden, Eplin, and Joe are without a strike.  Me, Jim, and Shawn have one strike. 

PREDICTION

I'm predicting a real blood bath this week.  The other shoe has to drop at some point and it feels like this is going to be the week where we see some people lose. 

PICK'EMS

Quick updates on these, the pick'em bonus was a tie between Eplin, Joe, Folden, and Munez this week with 19 picks a piece.

In other news, Wisconsin has now been eliminated from the Big 10.  A lot of people chose them to go far this year, so this has to be the biggest disappointment amongst all the picks so far.

FANTASY FOOTBALL

As I do down the stretch in fantasy season, I want to take the time go through the standings and each person's updated playoff chances.

John beat Kemp, keeping his team's chances alive.

Eplin beat Jim, eliminating Jim from postseasons chances and helping his own. 

Hale scored more than double what Gary did, putting him on the ropes.  Hale earned the full point bonus for most points scored.

I needed a 100 yard, 2 td performance from Matthew Breida on Monday night to eek out a win again Munez. (Munez got the 1/2 point losers bonus)

Rob beat Joe to close in on him and some others in the playoffs. 

Folden beat Shawn, delivering Shawn his 4th loss in 5 games. 

Standings.

1. Adam 8-2
2. Hale 7-3
3. Joe 6-4
4. Folden 6-4
5. Munez 6-4
6. Shawn 6-4
7. Eplin 5-5
8. Rob 5-5
9. Gary 4-6
10. John 4-6
11. Jim 3-7
12. Kemp 0-10

In a side note I don't think we've ever had a team go winless in Football God's fantasy league.

Playoff chances.

Sure thing 99.9%
Adam - I don't think there's a way I can't make the playoffs now, unless if I scored 50 a game, lost out, and a bunch of things went against me.  I'm 2 games up (with tiebreakers) on the BYE.  I'll be playing for that position and guarenteed top 4.

Damn Near sure thing

Hale 97% - Hale would need to lose out at this point, and even that may not be enough to keep him out, as he has the tiebreaker over everyone.  He's 2 games up on the playoffs, and will lock things up for sure with a win this week.

Muddled chances.
Joe & Folden 65%
Shawn & Munez 53%

The difference between the top 2 and bottom 2 here is the points scored.  Eplin is one game back of both of them, and would jump them in the event of a tie.  Joe & Folden are too close in points to Eplin to say who would win the tiebreaker at this point.

Eplin 45%
I think everything that needed said about Eplin's chances were said in the paragraph above.

Rob 33%
Rob's chances improved with a win.  It also helped him that Gary lost, who he jumped, and that 3 of the 6-3 teams lost.  He's still a game back, and even if he ended up in a tie for 6th this week, he'd be losing the tiebreaker.  Rob's going to win out most likely to make the playoffs. 

Gary & John 5%
Gary has a little bit of an edge over John, because of his points scored.  Winning out and hoping for a lot of things to fall their way is the only chances.

Jim & Kemp 0%


Week 11 Schedule

Eplin 5-5 vs Kemp 0-10 
Jim 3-7 vs Shawn 6-4
Rob 5-5 vs Folden 6-4
Adam 8-2 vs Gary 4-6
Joe 6-4 vs Munez 6-4
Hale 7-3 vs John 4-6

If Rob and Jim win, we'll see some big percentage changes next week.  Let's see how it plays out.

11-6-18 Update

Hey fellas, 

A few updates to go through.  I'll start with our first correct predictions of the year coming to fruition in the past couple of weeks. 

Hue Jackson of the Cleveland Browns & David Beatty of Kansas both lost their jobs, back on the chain gang again. 

Beatty was a popular choice, chosen by Jim, Folden, Joe, Rob, Munez, Gary, and Eplin.

Jackson, who had won 1 game in 2 seasons as a coach, was a surprisingly scarcer choice.  He was only chosen by Me, Shawn, Joe, and Rob.

That said, let's move on with our lives.  We are now through week 9 in the NFL so past the halfway point, but not at a point where we can really go through any picks yet.  In College though we can talk about what people predicted that's not going to happen. 

The only team that's been marked out for the National Championship is Eplin's pick of Wisconsin.  other than that the rest of us are alive. 

Otherwise, in the final 4, those of us that chose the following teams are eliminated.

Washington - adam, voyten, joe, rob, john, and hale
Wisconsin - Gary, Eplin, Kemp, John, Hale, Joe, Jim
Stanford - Jim & Folden
Michigan St - Folden

In other news, we all picked FAU to win Conference USA and they suck balls.  So, no harm no foul.  A few of us picked Memphis to win the AAC, and they suck as well. 

Rob's pick of Penn St is done, as is Voyten & Folden's Michigan St Big 10 pick. Everyone else's Wisconsin pick should be done, if not for them playing in a subpar division.

In other news, Munez is the only person with all 4 of his teams still in playoff contention with Bama, Ohio St, Georgia, and Clemson.  Ohio St and Georgia are 1 loss away from irrelevancy though.

The next two weeks will obviously shape everything up much clearer.

SURVIVOR/LOSERS POOL

Unbelieveably, we had our first loss in the losers pool in 4 weeks.  It took until last night's game but Dallas blew it against Tennessee, knocking Eplin out.  As of now the only things we know for sure is that Rob, John, Joe, & Munez are fighting for the top 4 spots.  Kemp was in last, Gary 11th, and Eplin 10th. 

This makes Me, Folden, Hale, Shawn, and Jim still fighting it out for 5th-9th place.  Kudos by the way to Joe taking Green Bay last week against the Rams.  I know the Rams were undefeated and the Packers sort of suck, but man what a ballsy pick.

Survivor Pool also gave us another loss last night, with John getting his second strike off of the Cowboys, after his ballsy pick in week 7 of No Pick Made

All we know about Survivor is Rob is in 1st, John 9th, Munez & Hale tied for 10th, and Gary 12th.

That leaves 7 of us fighting it out for 2nd-8th, with me and Jim as the only ones with 1 strike so far. 

College Pick'em

In college pick'em Munez holds onto a slim lead with 104.  Kemp is at 103 right behind him.  Folden and John are only 3 back.  Very tight at the moment.

Gary & Eplin are 5 back, Joe 6 back, and Rob 8 back.  After taht there's a big drop off to us losers at the bottom.

There are only 4 weeks left, so make sure you make your move.


Pro Pick'em

A disaster week of picking knocked me down to 3rd from 1st, and put Rob at 1 and Munez at 2.  Folden, Joe, Gary, and Shawn are all within 5 of first as well.

While we're at it, the bonus point for Week 9 of college and Week 8 of pros went to Hale with 18 correct predictions.

Week 10 of college & week 9 of pros went to Folden & Gary with 20.

Fantasy Football

On fantasy the first thing I want to go over is the bonus points. 

In week 8 Gary earned his 1 point bonus for 4 wins, which Eplin did as well in Week 9.  Hale had the most points scored in week 8, with Shawn having the most points for a losing team.  Hale gets 1 bonus point, Shawn with 0.5

Week 9 had Jim scoring the most points with Kemp getting the half bonus point. 

Standings

Adam 7-2
Hale 6-3
Joe 6-3
Shawn 6-3
Munez 6-3
Folden 5-4
Eplin 4-5
Gary 4-5
Rob 4-5
Jim 3-6
John 3-6
Kemp 0-9

Hale & I sit 1 and 2, having the most points scored in the league.  The fall off after that is about 150 points to the next highest scoring team, which is oddly enough Jim who is in 10th place. 

Let's go through playoff probabilities

Near Certain
Adam 7-2 95%
With a 3 game lead on the playoffs, and tie breakers in most places, i really need just one more victory to lock up a spot out of my last 4.

Close to Near Certain 85%
Joe & Hale 6-3
Hale & Joe are both 2 games up on the playoffs and would have the tie breakers based off of their points against most other teams.  2 wins is a shoe in, but 1 more win could be enough to get them in.

Solid Chances 75%
Shawn 6-3
Munez 6-3

Three weeks ago, Shawn was 5-0 and looked like a lock for the playoffs.  While he's still in good shape with a 2 game lead, he could really benefit from not having a 4th loss out of 5. 
Munez on the other hand has won 2 in a row after hitting 4-3 a couple of weeks ago.  He's not doing himself favors in the tiebreakers, and sits in a near identical situation to Shawn

On Thin Ice 60%
Folden 5-4

Folden has lost 2 games in a row as well, and holds a 1 game lead over the 3 teams behind him.  One week could put a big gap between him and the competition, but it's still a little early to say.  Folden would benefit from the tiebreaker over Gary & Rob, but not Eplin up to now.

Fringe 40-45%
Eplin 4-5
Gary 4-5
Rob 4-5

It's a little less than a coin flip to me that one of these 3 will make the playoffs.  The best they can do now is just win hope a couple teams in front of them hit the skids.

Last Chance 15%
Jim 3-6

Jim is 3rd and points and 10th in the standings.  An unfortunate occurance that has effected most of us at one time or another.  Jim's one big leg up is that he has scored a shit load of points.  He won last week and will need to finish the season on a 5 game losing streak to get in.  He'd also need a little help

Probably Done 5% 
John 3-6

John has the same record as Jim, but his point total for the tiebreaker is dead last.  He'll need to win out and get a lot of help to be solely in 6th place.

Def Done -125%

Kemp 0-9

Fournette gain you a win?


Week 10 Schedule

This is the week that's going to set things apart

Adam 7-2 vs Munez 6-3
Shawn 6-3 vs Folden 5-4

If you're trying to jump people into a playoff spot this may be the week you route for me and Shawn.  A loss for Folden will bring him back to the pack, opening up the 6th playoff spot.  A loss by Munez and wins by others puts that 5th spot back into play too. 

Joe 6-3 vs Rob 4-5
Hale 6-3 vs Gary 4-5

These aren't elimination games, but they're close to it.  Wins by Rob & Gary, Shawn and Me, would bring the pack up to the people in the playoffs.  This would result in 3rd through 8th being only a game apart.  The other way around and we can start penciling in playoff spots.

John 3-6 vs Kemp 0-9

Not a lot of excitement here but John's staying alive.

Jim 3-6 vs Eplin 4-5
This game will pretty much position Eplin or Jim going forward.  With a win Jim could jump as high as 7th place.  With a win he's likely done.  With a win, Eplin could find himself in the playoff picture by the end of the week.  Lots of implications. 


Next week I'll be doing a short update to update fantasy & survivor/losers pool.  Until then, have a nice week.