11-6-18 Update

Hey fellas, 

A few updates to go through.  I'll start with our first correct predictions of the year coming to fruition in the past couple of weeks. 

Hue Jackson of the Cleveland Browns & David Beatty of Kansas both lost their jobs, back on the chain gang again. 

Beatty was a popular choice, chosen by Jim, Folden, Joe, Rob, Munez, Gary, and Eplin.

Jackson, who had won 1 game in 2 seasons as a coach, was a surprisingly scarcer choice.  He was only chosen by Me, Shawn, Joe, and Rob.

That said, let's move on with our lives.  We are now through week 9 in the NFL so past the halfway point, but not at a point where we can really go through any picks yet.  In College though we can talk about what people predicted that's not going to happen. 

The only team that's been marked out for the National Championship is Eplin's pick of Wisconsin.  other than that the rest of us are alive. 

Otherwise, in the final 4, those of us that chose the following teams are eliminated.

Washington - adam, voyten, joe, rob, john, and hale
Wisconsin - Gary, Eplin, Kemp, John, Hale, Joe, Jim
Stanford - Jim & Folden
Michigan St - Folden

In other news, we all picked FAU to win Conference USA and they suck balls.  So, no harm no foul.  A few of us picked Memphis to win the AAC, and they suck as well. 

Rob's pick of Penn St is done, as is Voyten & Folden's Michigan St Big 10 pick. Everyone else's Wisconsin pick should be done, if not for them playing in a subpar division.

In other news, Munez is the only person with all 4 of his teams still in playoff contention with Bama, Ohio St, Georgia, and Clemson.  Ohio St and Georgia are 1 loss away from irrelevancy though.

The next two weeks will obviously shape everything up much clearer.

SURVIVOR/LOSERS POOL

Unbelieveably, we had our first loss in the losers pool in 4 weeks.  It took until last night's game but Dallas blew it against Tennessee, knocking Eplin out.  As of now the only things we know for sure is that Rob, John, Joe, & Munez are fighting for the top 4 spots.  Kemp was in last, Gary 11th, and Eplin 10th. 

This makes Me, Folden, Hale, Shawn, and Jim still fighting it out for 5th-9th place.  Kudos by the way to Joe taking Green Bay last week against the Rams.  I know the Rams were undefeated and the Packers sort of suck, but man what a ballsy pick.

Survivor Pool also gave us another loss last night, with John getting his second strike off of the Cowboys, after his ballsy pick in week 7 of No Pick Made

All we know about Survivor is Rob is in 1st, John 9th, Munez & Hale tied for 10th, and Gary 12th.

That leaves 7 of us fighting it out for 2nd-8th, with me and Jim as the only ones with 1 strike so far. 

College Pick'em

In college pick'em Munez holds onto a slim lead with 104.  Kemp is at 103 right behind him.  Folden and John are only 3 back.  Very tight at the moment.

Gary & Eplin are 5 back, Joe 6 back, and Rob 8 back.  After taht there's a big drop off to us losers at the bottom.

There are only 4 weeks left, so make sure you make your move.


Pro Pick'em

A disaster week of picking knocked me down to 3rd from 1st, and put Rob at 1 and Munez at 2.  Folden, Joe, Gary, and Shawn are all within 5 of first as well.

While we're at it, the bonus point for Week 9 of college and Week 8 of pros went to Hale with 18 correct predictions.

Week 10 of college & week 9 of pros went to Folden & Gary with 20.

Fantasy Football

On fantasy the first thing I want to go over is the bonus points. 

In week 8 Gary earned his 1 point bonus for 4 wins, which Eplin did as well in Week 9.  Hale had the most points scored in week 8, with Shawn having the most points for a losing team.  Hale gets 1 bonus point, Shawn with 0.5

Week 9 had Jim scoring the most points with Kemp getting the half bonus point. 

Standings

Adam 7-2
Hale 6-3
Joe 6-3
Shawn 6-3
Munez 6-3
Folden 5-4
Eplin 4-5
Gary 4-5
Rob 4-5
Jim 3-6
John 3-6
Kemp 0-9

Hale & I sit 1 and 2, having the most points scored in the league.  The fall off after that is about 150 points to the next highest scoring team, which is oddly enough Jim who is in 10th place. 

Let's go through playoff probabilities

Near Certain
Adam 7-2 95%
With a 3 game lead on the playoffs, and tie breakers in most places, i really need just one more victory to lock up a spot out of my last 4.

Close to Near Certain 85%
Joe & Hale 6-3
Hale & Joe are both 2 games up on the playoffs and would have the tie breakers based off of their points against most other teams.  2 wins is a shoe in, but 1 more win could be enough to get them in.

Solid Chances 75%
Shawn 6-3
Munez 6-3

Three weeks ago, Shawn was 5-0 and looked like a lock for the playoffs.  While he's still in good shape with a 2 game lead, he could really benefit from not having a 4th loss out of 5. 
Munez on the other hand has won 2 in a row after hitting 4-3 a couple of weeks ago.  He's not doing himself favors in the tiebreakers, and sits in a near identical situation to Shawn

On Thin Ice 60%
Folden 5-4

Folden has lost 2 games in a row as well, and holds a 1 game lead over the 3 teams behind him.  One week could put a big gap between him and the competition, but it's still a little early to say.  Folden would benefit from the tiebreaker over Gary & Rob, but not Eplin up to now.

Fringe 40-45%
Eplin 4-5
Gary 4-5
Rob 4-5

It's a little less than a coin flip to me that one of these 3 will make the playoffs.  The best they can do now is just win hope a couple teams in front of them hit the skids.

Last Chance 15%
Jim 3-6

Jim is 3rd and points and 10th in the standings.  An unfortunate occurance that has effected most of us at one time or another.  Jim's one big leg up is that he has scored a shit load of points.  He won last week and will need to finish the season on a 5 game losing streak to get in.  He'd also need a little help

Probably Done 5% 
John 3-6

John has the same record as Jim, but his point total for the tiebreaker is dead last.  He'll need to win out and get a lot of help to be solely in 6th place.

Def Done -125%

Kemp 0-9

Fournette gain you a win?


Week 10 Schedule

This is the week that's going to set things apart

Adam 7-2 vs Munez 6-3
Shawn 6-3 vs Folden 5-4

If you're trying to jump people into a playoff spot this may be the week you route for me and Shawn.  A loss for Folden will bring him back to the pack, opening up the 6th playoff spot.  A loss by Munez and wins by others puts that 5th spot back into play too. 

Joe 6-3 vs Rob 4-5
Hale 6-3 vs Gary 4-5

These aren't elimination games, but they're close to it.  Wins by Rob & Gary, Shawn and Me, would bring the pack up to the people in the playoffs.  This would result in 3rd through 8th being only a game apart.  The other way around and we can start penciling in playoff spots.

John 3-6 vs Kemp 0-9

Not a lot of excitement here but John's staying alive.

Jim 3-6 vs Eplin 4-5
This game will pretty much position Eplin or Jim going forward.  With a win Jim could jump as high as 7th place.  With a win he's likely done.  With a win, Eplin could find himself in the playoff picture by the end of the week.  Lots of implications. 


Next week I'll be doing a short update to update fantasy & survivor/losers pool.  Until then, have a nice week.