Big Changes Thanks to that Clemson Ass whoopin'

Quite the headline I know, but it really sort of fits in for the group.  To give a little background on the history of FBG we've been predicting the College & Pro Championships since the beginning.  The reason why those are worth significantly more points then other things is because it's relatively to predict just right.  So, in the course of our league, it's been a nice reward to give the people who are able to accurately predict the champion a bit of a leg up for doing so.

This year is not like every other year.  Since August everyone knew it was probably going to end up Clemson vs Alabama.  Sure, some people picked Georgia to mix it up, and Eplin in explicitly picked Wisconsin, but the likelihood of Clemson vs Alabama was high.  Because of that going into the last game of the season we were going to see a huge swing in the points either way.

With most people having one of the forms of Clemson and Alabama, whoever got it right was getting 10 points (in most cases) and the loser was getting nothing.  Below were the standings going into the final game.

Gary 27
Munez 26
Kemp 25
Eplin 24
Hale 23
Adam 22
Joe 22
John 19
Jim 19
Rob 18
Folden 18
Voyten 11

This would be the final standings if Alabama had won:

Munez 36
Hale 33
Joe 32
Eplin 30
Kemp 29
Folden 28
Gary 27
John 23
Adam 22
Jim 19
Rob 18
Voyten 11

Here are the final standings with Clemson winning

Gary 37 (7)
Adam 32 (6)
Jim 29 (5)
Munez 26 (5)
Kemp 25 (5)
Eplin 24 (4)
Rob 24 (4)
Hale 23 (4)
Joe 22 (4)
John 19 (3)
Folden 18 (3)
Voyten 11 (2)

Other than the fact that in either case, Shawn is woefully in last place, there are giant swings.  Remember this when we get to the standings this week.

With that, Gary gets 5 bonus points, I get 3 bonus points, and Jim gets 2 bonus points.  In addition to this I counted up our total prediction points.  In the rules, it stated that for every 5 points you score in the predictions you get a bonus point.  The bonus points are in parenthesis above.

Bonus Points

Giving an update on where we stand on bonus points:  Keep in mind this is with the 1 bonus point per prediction in College pick'em but NOT in the pro pick'em:  Obviously, those top 3 bonus's are coming into play more and more.

Munez	26
Adam	24
Hale	22.5
Gary	21
Kemp	17.5
Rob	17
Joe	17
Jim	17
John	16
Folden	15.5
Eplin	12
Shawn	12

Bowl Pick'em
Onto our bowl pick'em.  It appears nothing changed in the pick'em.  Meaning our final winner is Shawn, followed by Kemp, and then Me.  The bonus points will go out 5, 3, and 2.

Final ROTO points per person.

Shawn 12
Kemp 11
Adam 10
Eplin 9
Rob 8
Folden 7
Hale 6
Joe 4.5
John 4.5
Gary 3
Jim 2
Munez 1

Pro Pick'em

There were slight changes in pro pick'em this week.  Mainly with Gary jumping up to 4th.  This is still really close, with 2 games seperating Gary, Joe, and Shawn for 4th place.  Hale and Sahwn tied for 7th.  These last few games could make the difference in close standings in the finish.

Pro Predictions

John 26

Hale 24

Rob 21

Joe 21

Kemp 21

Jim 20

Adam 18

Eplin 17

Shawn 16

Munez 13

Gary 12

Folden 12

That are the current standings in the Pro Predictions.  And these are the points still to go out.

MVP

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Comeback player of the Year

Coach of the Year

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Defensive Player of the year

AFC & NFC Championship Game losers

Super Bowl Loser

Super Bowl Winner

So, in the next few weeks we'll settle the bonus points category, pro predictions, and pro pick'em. 

So let's see what's changed.  Our standings last update

1. Rob 78.5

2. Joe 74

3. Hale 72.5

4. Munez 67.5

5. Adam 62

6. Folden 61.5

7. John 57.5

8. Eplin 51.5

9. Shawn 51

10. Kemp 49

11. Jim 39

12. Gary 38.5

Now let's see where everyone would stand if Alabama had won last week.


Joe 72.5
Hale 72.5
Rob 70
Munez 67
Folden 65.5
Adam 60
John 59.5
Eplin 54
Kemp 53.5

Shawn 49.5
Gary 40.5
Jim 39

Finally, let's take a look at where we actually stand, solely becaue Clemson beat Alabama, instead of the other way around.

Rob 78
Joe 67.5
Adam 67
Hale 67
Munez 64
Folden 58.5
John 56.5
Kemp 54.5
Eplin 52
Shawn 49.5
Jim 47
Gary 46.5

Unreal how a few bonus points and a jump in the standings can change everything.  Essentially it looks like Rob has it locked up.  He'd have to drop 11 points to one of the 3 people below him, and I don't think there's enough variance left for that to happen.

The interesting thing now is between 2nd and 5th.  Only half a point seperate 2nd, 3rd, and 4th.  With Munez still only a couple of points back.  With us all having different Superbowls, it'll probably come down to that game to decide who finishes in the money, and who finishes out.

Pre playoff update

Hey fellas.  Let's all be friends here and talk about where we stand going into the final month of the football season.

Fantasy Football

Hale and I's game came down to the Sunday night affair, and he outlasted me to win the Fantasy Championship.

That's 5 bonus points to Hale, 3 to me, and 2 to Rob, who finished in 3rd. 

Your final points standings in fantasy look like this:

Hale 12
Adam 11
Rob 10
Joe 9
Shawn 8
Folden 7
Eplin 6
Munez 5
Jim 4
Gary 3
John 2
Kemp 1

Pro Pick'em has changed a lot of over the past few weeks.  With only 11 games left in the season, it may be hard to make too much of a move here.

Folden 12
Munez 11
Rob 10
Joe 9
Gary 8
Shawn 7
Jim & Hale 5.5
Adam 4
Kemp 3
Eplin 2
John 1

Folden is probably safe at either 1st or 2nd, with Rob in 3rd 6 games back.  Munez could still jump to 1st or possibly fall to 3rd.  The place where there's real chances for carnage is between 4th and 8th.  Only 4 games separate that bunch. 

Bowl Pick'em

With 1 game to play here is where we stand

Shawn 559
Kemp 519
Adam 494
Eplin 480
Rob 477
Folden 432
Hale 422
John 422
Joe 421
Gary 391
Jim 331
Munez 320

The nice thing about ESPN is that it shows you how many points each person has remaining.  Rob for instance, at 5th has only 1 point left, so he can't go any higher than 5th place.  He also has a 45 point lead over Folden at 6th.  So you know he's set there at 5th.

Shawn has a 40 point lead over Kemp at 2nd place, with Kemp having 35 points left.  So Shawn will win.  Kemp can finish no worse then 3rd, I can finish no worse then 4th.  Eplin will finish between 2nd - 4th.

The real juice here is between 6th and 9th.  Only 11 points separates the Mclanes, Folden, and Hale.  So, who will use there gamesmenship right.  Switch to Clemson and hope everyone else picks Bama, or stay with Bama and hope every else switches?

Here's our cooresponding point totals as of now

Shawn 12
Kemp 11
Adam 10
Eplin 9
Rob 8
Folden 7
Hale 6
Joe 4.5
John 4.5
Gary 3
Jim 2
Munez 1

Pro Predictions

I don't really have time to go through all of this.  But I'll just post the point totals as of now. 

John 26

Hale 24

Rob 21

Joe 21

Kemp 21

Jim 20

Adam 18

Eplin 17

Shawn 16

Munez 13

Gary 12

Folden 12

I'll get more into the pro predictions next week.  

On another note I had completely forgotten that for College and pro predictions you get a bonus point for every 5 points you score.  So our bonus points are updated with that in mind. 

Here is where we are at in bonus points now.  

Munez	28
Hale	26.5
John	22
Adam	21
Joe	21
Rob	20
Kemp	19.5
Folden	17.5
Jim	17
Gary	16
Eplin	15
Shawn	10

Lastly,  Rob ended up winning the losers pool.  He didn't lose a game all year.  Well done by him and John taking it down to week 17.

So obviously there's a few bottle necks that can still clear up.  In the meantime, here are your overall total scores as of 1/4/19

1. Rob 78.5

2. Joe 74

3. Hale 72.5

4. Munez 67.5

5. Adam 62

6. Folden 61.5

7. John 57.5

8. Eplin 51.5

9. Shawn 51

10. Kemp 49

11. Jim 39

12. Gary 38.5

So, the addition of a couple of categories really mixed things up.  Hale jumped from 5th to 3rd.  Munez fell from 1st to 4th.  Folden from 3rd to 6th.  Will be interesting to see how things play out.  Points will fluctuate again on Tueday after the College football season ends.  Update it then.  

Updates: Final weeks of the regular season

Hey guys.  Merry Christmas to you all this coming week.  I hope you enjoy seeing me slide down your chimneys to greet you in the middle of the night.  On with the Updates!

There are lots of updates to go through, so let's start from the top.

Fantasy Football

Since our last update, Joe beat Shawn followed by Rob beating Folden. 

This put some heated matchups in the semifinals.  Rob & Joe's teams unfortunately didn't arrive on the big stage, and they are left to sort out 3rd place in the consolation game and 1 bonus point.

Shawn beat Folden for 5th place. 

This leaves Hale & I on the collision course we've been on all year in the finals.  It's a heavyweight for sure, with our teams projected to put up a combined 280 points. 

Pro Pick'em

With two weeks to play we've got some tight finishes happening here. 

Munez's lead is down to 1 game over Folden after he had a rough week last week.  Rob is in striking distance 4 games back.  Gary is at 106, followed by a log jam between Me, Joe, Shawn, and Jim all within 2 points of one another. 

There's a lot of variance in this still, which could make a very big impact on the final scores, and there are only 32 games left to decide it. 

Losers Pool

We have finally decided the consolation bracket in the losers pool.  Hale outlasted Shawn & Folden, meaning Hale maxed out at 8 points.  Shawn & Folden will each end up with 6.5.

Rob & John are the only two left going for anything.  Rob hasn't lost yet and John has one loss.  If Rob finishes undefeated he obviously will finish in first.  John will need to win out and hope Rob loses one for a tie. 

Survivor Pool

On the Survivor side of things, Hale got knocked out, picking the Jags to beat the Redskins, which unbelievably didn't happen.  Hale earns 8 points in that as well.

This leaves Folden, Joe, and Eplin fighting it out over the final 3 spots. 

Bowl Pick'em

It's early here,  too early to really do an update with only a handful of games played.  But, I noticed some people didn't change their confidence points for any games this weekend.  You guys know what that means right?  If you don't understand confidence points, please let me know. 

Pro Predictions

I'll go through these in depth either next week or the week after.

Bonus Points

Rob, Gary, & Kemp each earned the half point bonus for this week in pro pick'em. 

Jim earned it the week before.

Rob will earn the 1 point bonus for making thru another 4 weeks in losers pool next week. That's a guarantee.  John can still earn it too next week.   

We also get a bonus point for every 5 points in the predictions.  The way it stands at this moment is as follows for college predictions

Munez 5
Adam 5
Gary 5
Kemp 5
Hale 4
Eplin 4
Joe 4
Jim 4
Rob 3
John 3
Folden 3
Shawn 2


Making our totals for Bonus points as follows: 

Munez 21
Hale 13
Folden 12.5
Joe 12.5
John 12
Rob 11
Kemp 10.5
Adam 10
Jim 10
Gary 9
Eplin 8
Shawn 5

If you want to look at the attachment i put in fantasy football, you can see where we stand in each of the categories.  Anything highlighted in green, means a point value that's set in stone.  Anything clear, is still a variable.

1. Munez 64.5
2. Rob 62
3. Joe 60
4. Folden 57
5. Hale 53.5
6. Adam 46
7. Eplin 37.5
8. John 37
9. Gary 34
10. Shawn 33
11 Jim 30
12. Kemp 27

Compared to last week a few thins have happened.  Munez's lead overall has shrank from 3.5 points to 2.5 points.  Rob is now in sole possession of 2nd, making the fantasy game this weekend even more important.  Joe is 4.5 points off of the lead.  Folden is 7.5 points back and was 7.  Hale gained a point and a half, moving up to 11.5 points out instead of 12.5.

I fell back pretty bad, falling from 15 points back to 18.5.  I'd say I have a comfortable grasp on 6th place right now, noone within 7.5 points of me either way. 

Eplin held steady, letting John fall back 4 points to fall to 8th.  Eplin in 7th.  Gary jumped a couple of points from 31.5 to 34 to get to 9th.  Shawn from 31 to 33 in 10th.  Jim from 31.5 to 30 in 11th.  Finally, Kemp rounding out the bottom with 27 points.

Make your move in pro pick'em and bowl pick'em.  Let's check in next week or the week after.  Ho Ho Ho. 

Update City

Hey guys, I'm going to jump right into it.  Lots to cover.

Survivor Pool & Losers Pool

There was only one loss this weekend with Joe finishing in 3rd by choosing the Giants to lose.  Folden, Hale, Shawn, and Jim still fight it out for 5th-8th place points and Rob & John still have no losses on the year.

In Survivor Pool Me, Hale, Joe, Eplin, & Folden are still fighting it out for 2nd-6th.

Pro Predictions

The first divisional pro prediction of the year has come in with the Rams winning the NFC West.  The Saints aren't far behind, neither are the Pats.  Lots more to come in that arena

Fantasy Football

The playoffs are set.  As it turned out, neither Munez nor Eplin won their game, so there wasn't a whole of changes.  Rob did jump from 6th to 4th, Folden & Shawn each falling one game.

Here is the field:

1.  Adam
Bye

4. Rob
5. Folden

3. Joe
6. Shawn

2. Hale
Bye

In other news, in the first time in like 35 fantasy leagues I've ever played in, Kemp went 0-13.  Congrats on that I guess.

The point totals for the final standings for the bottom 6 are:

6. Eplin
5. Munez
4. Jim
3. Gary
2. John
1. Kemp

The rest of the point total's will vary based off of playoff results.  Hale & I are guaranteed to finish top 4.

College Pick'em

So, now this is done. Season over.  Well done to Munez, for winning this with a record of 142-112.

Here are the points associated with this.

12 Munez
11 John
10 Folden
9 Kemp
8 Eplin
7 Joe
5.5 Gary
5.5 Rob
4 Shawn
3 Adam
2 Jim
1 Hale

With that, Munez earns 5 bonus points, John 3, and Folden 2.

Additionally, Rob, Munez, Folden, and Shawn earned a bonus point for the most predictions in combined pick'em this weekend.

College Predictions

With only awards season & the final 4 to play out, we have our initial results in for the College Predictions.  I'll go over them in detail where they need detail and gloss over what doesn't.

Final Four

This one's pretty simple.  Everyone but Eplin & John got 4 points for having Georgia and Alabama.  Noone had Oklahoma or Notre Dame.  Eplin didn't have Clemson & John didn't have Alabama. 

The ACC was similar.  Everyone had Clemson but Eplin 
SEC - Shawn, Rob, Kemp, John had Georgia, everyone else had Alabama for the points.
PAC 12 - Everyone but Jim, Folden, & Kemp had Washington
Big 10 - Only Munez & I had Ohio State winning the Big 10.
Big 12 - Only Munez, Kemp, & Hale had Oklahoma winning the Big 12.
AAC - Everyone but me, Folden, and Shawn had UCF winning.
Conf USA - Lane went ahead and Kiffined on us.  We all had FAU & they sucked balls.
MAC - Eplin & Kemp were the only two who took NIU to win the Mac.
MWC - Fresno upset Boise to win the MWC, noone had them.
Sun Belt - App st won, which was picked by Gary, Kemp, John.

Losers of the Conferences

ACC- Obviously, noone predicted Pitt.
SEC - Georgia was correct by everyone but Shawn, Rob, Kemp &, John.
Pac 12 - Utah was picked by Jim, Rob, & Munez
Big 10 - Obviously noone had Northwestern
Big 12 - Texas picked by Hale, Kemp, & Munez
AAU - Memphis was picked by Rob, Munez, Eplin, & Kemp
Conf USA - nada
MAC - Buffalo was picked by Hale
MWC - Noone had Boise
Sunbelt - Louisiana Lafayette was picked as a loser by Jim

Top 10 to fall out of the top 25 was picked correctly by:
Adam - Wisconsin
Folden, Joe, Rob, Gary, Eplin, & Kemp - Auburn

Highest unranked teams in top 25.

These two ended up being Florida & Washington St.  Noone had Wash St, but Florida was chosen by:
Adam, Shawn, Joe, Munez, Gary, and Hale.

This puts our current point totals as below.  In parenthesis.  Depending on how awards go, this could change before we get to the championship games. 

Munez 26
Gary 24
Hale 23
Joe 22
Adam 22
Kemp 19
Eplin 18
Rob 18
Jim 16
Folden 15
John 13
Voyten 11

Bonus Points:  Here is a quick update on the bonus points earned this season.

Adam	5
Jim	5.5
Folden	9.5
Shawn	3
Joe	8.5
Rob	7.5
Gary	3.5
Hale	9
Eplin	4
Kemp	5
John	9
Munez	16

Overall Standings as of Dec 6th

1. Munez 64.5
2. Rob 61
2. Joe 61
4. Folden 57.5
5. Hale 52
6. Adam 49.5
7. John 41
8. Eplin 37.5
t9. Gary 31.5
t9. Jim 31.5
11. Shawn 31
12. Kemp 28

Munez is either leading or has won 4 categories this year.  Unreal.  I likely won't do a point update next week, so don't get the lube out too fast for this one.  There probably won't be enough changes next week to warrant one.  I'll update fantasy & the pools, as well as pro pick'em next week though. 

Crunch Time

We've reached championship week in college football, so for the first time I'm able to close out a lot of people's picks.  And, I'll tell you this guys.  We did pretty shitty.  Taking anything Alabama or Clemson out of the mix, and we did below average at best.  I"m attaching the spreadsheet to the the facebook page for you guys to be able to compare.

Amazingly, Munez still has a chance to get all 4 of the final four correct.  He's the only person who can boast that at this point.  John, Kemp, Gary, Rob, and Voyten all have the ability to get 3 but they all have Georgia and Alabama.

Conference champions are similar.  Munez & Kemp have the lead with the ability to get 7 of the 10 conferences correct.  Gary, Shawn, Me, John, & Hale have 6 possibles.  Everyone else has 5 or 4.

The only predictions we can say safely at the moment are the Top 10 team to fall out of the Top 25 prediction.  Those of us that said Miami, Auburn, or Wisconsin are safe.  That's me, Folden, Rob, Joe, Gary, Eplin, & Kemp.

The Coaches that will get fired are pretty much settled as well.

Shawn & I said Lovie Smith, who got an extension, so that ain't happening.

David Beatty, Larry Fedora, DJ Durkin, have gotten everyone else points.  I'm still waiting on a decision to be made about Bob Davie in New Mexico for Kemp.

The finalists for the awards have been released too, but we'll go over those next week.

The Pro Predictions are starting to formulate, but I'll go over those next week too, once we're at the 3/4 point in the season.

College Pick'em is down to the last week of the season.  There are 8 games to choose from, and the separation at the top is only 1 game.  Munez sits at 137, with John at 136.  Folden has an outside chance at 134.  Probably a better chance for 2nd.  Those 3 will finish top 3, with Eplin 4 back of Folden.  The rest of us need to jockey for position for the final standings on this one.

Pro Pick'em is tight as well.  Three games seperate 2nd thru 6th, with Munez sitting in first by a few games.

No changes in the losers or survivor pools last week.  Only a few weeks to go.

Bonus Points

I had the highest score in fantasy earning a bonus point, while Joe was the highest scoring losing team, earning 0.5 bonus points.
Jim & John earned the bonus points for the pick'em last week.  Joe, Rob, & John also earned a bonus point for making it 4 more weeks alive in the losers pool.

So, this may be confusing, but I'll type out the bonus points up to this point, and also attach the spreadsheet.

Fantasy Football Bonus Points

Hale 7
Adam 5
Jim 3.5
Joe 3
Folden 2.5
Munez 2.5
Eplin 2
Rob 1.5
Shawn 1.5
Gary 1
John 1
Kemp 0.5

Pick'em Bonus

Munez 5.5
Kemp 4.5
Folden 4
Gary 2.5
Jim 2
John 2
Eplin 2
Joe 1.5
Rob 1
Hale 1
Shawn 0
Adam 0


Pool Bonus

Rob 3
John 3
Joe 3
Munez 2

Bonus Point Standings

Munez 10
Hale 8
Joe 7.5
Folden 6.5
John 6
Rob 5.5
Jim 5.5
Kemp 5
Adam 5
Eplin 4
Gary 3
Shawn 1.5

After next week I'll be able to mock up our standings overall for the first time, this will be a category inside of this.


This is our final week of the regular season of fantasy football.  And, this shit is full of drama.

Joe put up 160 points and lost, and the things that happened below him were enough to lower his playoff chances.

Folden beat Munez in a tight game that now has him in the playoff picture and Munez outside.

Eplin lost a tight one to Hale knocking him out of the picture.

Rob won his 3rd in a row getting back into the playoffs.

Shawn won on a 97 yard TD run by Lamar Miller on Monday night that not only saved his season, but kept Kemp on skid row at an unreal 0-12.

Here's our final week scenario.

First round byes locked in

Adam 10-2
Hale 9-3

It's pretty amazing at this point in the year that Hale and I are seperated by only 5 points.  We both have 200 points more then the next closest team to us.  Pretty dominant so far by both of our teams.

3.  Joe 7-5
4. Folden 7-5
5. Shawn 7-5
6. Rob 7-5
7. Eplin 6-6
8. Munez 6-6

Joe vs Gary
Folden vs Adam
Shawn vs Hale
Rob vs Kemp
Eplin vs John
Munez vs Jim

It's pretty unreal that none of the 6 of you play each other.  So, scenarios.

Obviously if 3-6 win they are all in.  Or any of them win they are in.

If Joe and/or Folden lose and Eplin wins then the point tiebreaker will come into play. 65 points separates the 3 of them. Eplin passing one of those two is the only way those 2 don't end up in the playoffs.

Shawn & Rob are in a more dangerous situation, as Munez can pass them as well.

If Rob and/or Shawn lose, and Eplin wins, he's in.  He has the tie breaker.  If Munez wins there are 30 points seperating Munez, Shawn, and Rob.

So, Eplin's hoping for 1 of 4 teams to lose, and for him to win.  Munez is hoping for 1 of 2 teams to lose and win his game.

Gary, Jim, and John are still playing for 9th -11th.  Kemp clinched dead last many weeks ago.  I actually will give you guys an overall point update.  Just so you can see how volatile it is.

At this point read the point link in the facebook post.
					9	3		32

Obviously most of those numbers can change.  I have 12 for being in first in fantasy but that could go down to 9.  Joe, who has 10 points in fantasy could go down as far as 6 by next week. 

The pools that are still going on, I took the median number of what the person's high and low was.  So for instance, Joe, John, and Rob's range in the losers pool is 12-10, so I gave them each 11 for this projection.  

These scores also don't include college predictions, pro predictions and the bowl games.  

But now you get a sense of how the scoring works.  Where all previous years was an accumulation of points, this is an evolution of points that can change as we go.  The only points set in stone here so far are about half of the losers pool and survivors pools.  And of course Kemp being in dead last in fantasy football.

See you next week.

Short Update - 11/20/2018

Short work week, short update.  Let's start with the survivor/ghoul pool.

Some dominoes did fall this weekend, but from only one game.  Denver's come from behind victory over the chargers knocked me and Munez out of the losers pool.  Munez is guarenteed 4th place.  I get 9th place.  Rob & John still haven't lost a game yet, and Joe is now guarenteed at least 3rd.  Here's how the points stand.

12-10 Rob, John, Joe
9 Munez
8-5 Folden, Hale, Jim, Shawn,
4 Adam
3 Eplin
2 Gary
1 Kemp

Survivor claimed a couple of people as well.  Jim & Shawn had the Chargers.

The points in this now stand as follows.

Rob 12
11-7 Adam, Joe, Hale, Eplin, Folden
5.5 - Jim & Shawn
4 Shawn
2.5 Kemp & Munez
1 Gary


In fantasy football we have 2 weeks left in the season.  Here's where things stand

1. Adam 9-2 (clinched playoff spot)  The only person that can stop me from a bye is Joe, and I'd have to lose out and Joe would need to jump the 182 point difference from us.  98% likely I have a bye.

2. Hale 8-3 (unofficially clinched playoff spot)  Hale's in.  I can't see an avenue in which he loses.  He is now 1 win away from clinching the other bye.  Would need to lose out and have Joe win out to lose out on it.

3.  Joe 7-4 (90% chance in playoffs)  Joe has a 1 game lead on everyone and the point tiebreaker on everyone but Eplin.  Even if he loses out, he'd be tied for 6th. 

Here's where things get wild.  4th-8th are all tied at 6-5 with two games to play.  So we'll go over those after we cover the bottom 4 teams.

9-11th Jim, John, Gary.  They are effectively playing for who can have the most points in the final standings.  9th gets 4, where 11th only gets 2. 

12th Kemp.  0-11.  Time to see if he gets a win in his final 2 games.

Back to the teams that are 4th - 8th.  Where do they each stand? along with their remaining schedule

4.  Eplin - 1443 points (Hale, John)
5. Folden 1381 points (Munez, Adam)
6. Munez 1296 points (Folden, Jim)
7. Shawn 1266 points (Kemp, Hale)
8. Rob 1264 points (Jim, Kemp)

Folden & Eplin are in the best shape, having scored as many points as they have.  Truth be told, Munez & Folden are playing in a likely elimination game this weekend.  Let's project.

If Eplin loses to Hale, he'll fall to 6-6.  One of Folden or Munez will be 6-6.  One will be 7-5.  Shawn & Rob each winning would keep all 5 people still in the mix for next week.  Amazingly, none of the 5 play each other in the last week of the season.  There's no way as of now to figure out a likely path for how things will go.  We could end up with 4 6-6 teams or 4 7-5 teams next week.  Some people need to route for Hale to win, some need to route for Jim.  It's pretty much insanity.

If you had to put a gun to my head, based on schedule, and the way things have gone, I'd have Eplin, Munez, and Rob getting the 3 spots.  But, who the hell knows. 

That's it for now. 

11-13-18 Update

Tis the season where the updates nearly come weekly.  Let's get into what changed from last week and see where we go.

SURVIVOR POOL

Not much changed this week.  Losers pool everyone was victorious and the survivor pool had a blip on the radar.  Shawn chose the Falcons, which turned out not to be a very good pick, as the Browns decimated them.

So, we still have Rob & John without a loss on the year, Joe & Munez with one loss fighting for the top spot. 

After that we have 5 people fighting for 5th place. 

Survivor Pool is still a race for 2nd place.  7 people remain.  Hale, Folden, Eplin, and Joe are without a strike.  Me, Jim, and Shawn have one strike. 

PREDICTION

I'm predicting a real blood bath this week.  The other shoe has to drop at some point and it feels like this is going to be the week where we see some people lose. 

PICK'EMS

Quick updates on these, the pick'em bonus was a tie between Eplin, Joe, Folden, and Munez this week with 19 picks a piece.

In other news, Wisconsin has now been eliminated from the Big 10.  A lot of people chose them to go far this year, so this has to be the biggest disappointment amongst all the picks so far.

FANTASY FOOTBALL

As I do down the stretch in fantasy season, I want to take the time go through the standings and each person's updated playoff chances.

John beat Kemp, keeping his team's chances alive.

Eplin beat Jim, eliminating Jim from postseasons chances and helping his own. 

Hale scored more than double what Gary did, putting him on the ropes.  Hale earned the full point bonus for most points scored.

I needed a 100 yard, 2 td performance from Matthew Breida on Monday night to eek out a win again Munez. (Munez got the 1/2 point losers bonus)

Rob beat Joe to close in on him and some others in the playoffs. 

Folden beat Shawn, delivering Shawn his 4th loss in 5 games. 

Standings.

1. Adam 8-2
2. Hale 7-3
3. Joe 6-4
4. Folden 6-4
5. Munez 6-4
6. Shawn 6-4
7. Eplin 5-5
8. Rob 5-5
9. Gary 4-6
10. John 4-6
11. Jim 3-7
12. Kemp 0-10

In a side note I don't think we've ever had a team go winless in Football God's fantasy league.

Playoff chances.

Sure thing 99.9%
Adam - I don't think there's a way I can't make the playoffs now, unless if I scored 50 a game, lost out, and a bunch of things went against me.  I'm 2 games up (with tiebreakers) on the BYE.  I'll be playing for that position and guarenteed top 4.

Damn Near sure thing

Hale 97% - Hale would need to lose out at this point, and even that may not be enough to keep him out, as he has the tiebreaker over everyone.  He's 2 games up on the playoffs, and will lock things up for sure with a win this week.

Muddled chances.
Joe & Folden 65%
Shawn & Munez 53%

The difference between the top 2 and bottom 2 here is the points scored.  Eplin is one game back of both of them, and would jump them in the event of a tie.  Joe & Folden are too close in points to Eplin to say who would win the tiebreaker at this point.

Eplin 45%
I think everything that needed said about Eplin's chances were said in the paragraph above.

Rob 33%
Rob's chances improved with a win.  It also helped him that Gary lost, who he jumped, and that 3 of the 6-3 teams lost.  He's still a game back, and even if he ended up in a tie for 6th this week, he'd be losing the tiebreaker.  Rob's going to win out most likely to make the playoffs. 

Gary & John 5%
Gary has a little bit of an edge over John, because of his points scored.  Winning out and hoping for a lot of things to fall their way is the only chances.

Jim & Kemp 0%


Week 11 Schedule

Eplin 5-5 vs Kemp 0-10 
Jim 3-7 vs Shawn 6-4
Rob 5-5 vs Folden 6-4
Adam 8-2 vs Gary 4-6
Joe 6-4 vs Munez 6-4
Hale 7-3 vs John 4-6

If Rob and Jim win, we'll see some big percentage changes next week.  Let's see how it plays out.