Tuesday, December 6, 2016

Big Mama Update 2

So, with the NFL Season now 3/4's of the way done.  Things are starting to clear up.

First things first, let's look at where we stand in the pro pick'em

Geiss has won the Week 14 bonus hands down.  Last 10 point bonus of the year.

Overall, there is finally a little bit of separation in the standings.

Geiss put up a blistering 14 out of 15 to jump back into the lead.  I was right behind with 13 out of 15.

Geiss now has a 2 point lead over Me.   Gary fell to 3 back, while Colin and Joe sit 4 back.

After that, Eplin is 8 back, Munez and Folden 10 back.

Unless someone gets really hot, this looks like a 5 person race for 3 places.

Realistically, everyone except Hale, Jim, and probably Rob can still make a move into the top 3, but they will need to go lights out the rest of the way.

Here are the current standings.

The playoffs are set!  Here are your week 13 results

Jim beat Eplin to finish the season 10-3 and earn the #1 seed in the playoffs and a bye.

Colin won and jumped from #4 to #2 to earn a bye.

Rob lost and fell to the #3 seed.

Gary won and jumped up to #4.

Joe lost and fell to the #5 seed.

Finally,  Shawn turned in a loss to finish 6th.

Here are you finalized playoff brackets

#1 Jim

#4 Gary
#5 Joe

#3 Rob
#6 Shawn

#2 Colin

Here are some thoughts on the non playoff teams:

Folden finished the season with 2 wins, both against Eplin, which is an odd way for a season to go.

Munez finished the season winning 4 of his final 6, but a bad 1 and 4 start ended up killing his playoff chances.

Injuries crushed Eplin's year, and although he was 4-5, he finished the season on a 4 game losinig streak.  He does have a win over Joe & Jim.  2 top teams, although he lost twice to Folden.

I went 7-3 after starting the year 0-3, but it was too little too late, and I'm tiebroken out of the playoffs.

Geiss put together a good comeback, after starting 1-4, he crawled back to .500, before hitting a big losing streak to end his season.

Hale played his season in streaks.  Starting with 3 losses, then 3 wins, then 4 losses.  He was a victim of some big points against early in the year, that crushed his chances.  He averaged 116 points a week in those weeks and lost every game.

Keep in mind the playoff points go as follows. 60 for 1st, 40 for 2nd, and 20 for 3rd.


My 23 game winning streak ended the same place it started, with me picking the god damn New Orleans Saints.

I am now 24-0 in two years of Survivor Pool, when picking any other team but the Saints, and 0-2 when picking them

That puts Rob & I tied up at 1 strike a piece with 4 games to go.


Safe to say the abomination that is the Carolina Panthers is officially out of the playoff race.  they are 3 games back in the wildcard with 4 to play and about 8 teams to pass.  Dunzo.

That effects the following people.

Super Bowl Winner:  Adam
Super Bowl Participant:  Adam, Joe, Gary
NFC Championship game loser:  Shawn and Eplin.

Additionally, everyone had them winning the South.  So no gains or losses there.  Other prediciton trends.

NE is near a lock to win the AFC East which benefits noone.

The AFC North & South are tied messes.

The West is looking like it'll probably be either Oakland or KC.   The Broncos are 2 games back with 4 to play.  The are also 1-3 in the division, meaning that they're unlikely to win a tiebreaker if their is a 3 game tie.

That would negatively effect Shawn, Hale, and Eplin.  If Oakland wins Geiss will be theoonly benefit of them winning the division.

The wildcard picture is still pretty muddled.  If the season ended today the wildcard winners would be Denver & KC.

Denver is 8-4, and Miami, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore are all 7-5, so you could safely say they still  are in the wildcard race too.

As of now the 6-6 teams are unlikely, and I can't see two teams coming out the South, and 10-6 might not even be good enough for a wildcard game.  So, as of now, it's still possible, but unlikely.

In the NFC this week was sort of a life raft game for a couple of teams.

Green Bay won their 2nd in a row to pull themselves to .500.  They are 9th in the Conference and 2 games behind the Lions.  But, they are only a game back in the wildcard standings.  While everyone had them winning their division, that doesn't benefit anyone.  However, 3 people have them in the Superbowl (Rob, Hale, and Munez).

The same could be said for Arizona, who beat a tough Washington team in what was pretty much an elimination game for them.  They sit 10th in the conference at 5-6-1.  1 1/2 games out of a playoff spot.  They are all but finished in the division race.

This hurts Joe, Munez, Colin, Eplin, and Gary who all had them winning the West.  Not technically out, but most likely.

If Arizona misses the playoffs this kills Folden, Voyten, Colin, and Eplin who all had them winning the SB. The best anyone is looking at this point, is Jim & Geiss who both had Pittsburgh & Seattle playing in the Superbowl.

Assuming Green Bay doesn't catch Detroit, it's likely only one of those two teams will make it into the playoffs.

Detroit has it's last relatively easy game of the year, with a Home date against the Bears.  But, then they play on the road against the NYG & Cowboys.

The Packers play a home game against Seattle this weekend.  If (big if) they can win that game, I wouldn't bet against them to end up playing Detroit in week 17 for the division.  Such a Packers thing to do.

The NFC Wildcard situation is still looking pretty good for most of us.  The only teams taht are out for anyone at this point are by virtue of the teams playing too well.  Dallas can clinch their division with another win or Giants loss, so that hurts Eplin.

The same for Joe, Munez, Colin, and Gary with Seattle.

As far as the first three draft picks go, here is where we stand:

Cleveland 0-12
San Francisco 1-11
Jacksonville 2-10
Chicago 3-9
New York Jets 3-9
Los Angeles 4-8
Carolina 4-8
Cincinnati 4-7-1

Those are the only teams that are realistically still in the running for the bottom 3.

As far as that prediction goes, noone has all 3 teams still available.  Most people have 2 teams still in the running with the exception of Munez, Hale, and Eplin.

Total Overall Standings

College Total Score + Fantasy Wins + Pro Pick'em + (Bonus)

Folden's score includes his 20 point bonus in the Survivor Pool.  Folden & Rob & I's score includes our 10 point bonus for making it past week 9.

Shawn 391+70+112+(30)
Adam 367+70+122+(25)
Joe 324+80+120+(20)
Folden 305+20+114+(70)
Colin 302+80+120+(20)
Geiss 301+50+124+(10)
Rob 269+80+109+(10)=
Hale 268+50+102=
Jim 249+100+104=
Munez 244+60+114=
Gary 240+80+121+(20)=
Eplin 214+40+116+(10)=

Shawn 603
Adam 584
Joe 544
Colin 522
Folden 509
Geiss 485
Rob 468
Gary 461
Jim 453
Hale 420
Munez 418
Eplin 380

Again, check your points.  I'm a man, but a fallible one.

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