Tuesday, December 18, 2018

Updates: Final weeks of the regular season

Hey guys.  Merry Christmas to you all this coming week.  I hope you enjoy seeing me slide down your chimneys to greet you in the middle of the night.  On with the Updates!

There are lots of updates to go through, so let's start from the top.

Fantasy Football

Since our last update, Joe beat Shawn followed by Rob beating Folden. 

This put some heated matchups in the semifinals.  Rob & Joe's teams unfortunately didn't arrive on the big stage, and they are left to sort out 3rd place in the consolation game and 1 bonus point.

Shawn beat Folden for 5th place. 

This leaves Hale & I on the collision course we've been on all year in the finals.  It's a heavyweight for sure, with our teams projected to put up a combined 280 points. 

Pro Pick'em

With two weeks to play we've got some tight finishes happening here. 

Munez's lead is down to 1 game over Folden after he had a rough week last week.  Rob is in striking distance 4 games back.  Gary is at 106, followed by a log jam between Me, Joe, Shawn, and Jim all within 2 points of one another. 

There's a lot of variance in this still, which could make a very big impact on the final scores, and there are only 32 games left to decide it. 

Losers Pool

We have finally decided the consolation bracket in the losers pool.  Hale outlasted Shawn & Folden, meaning Hale maxed out at 8 points.  Shawn & Folden will each end up with 6.5.

Rob & John are the only two left going for anything.  Rob hasn't lost yet and John has one loss.  If Rob finishes undefeated he obviously will finish in first.  John will need to win out and hope Rob loses one for a tie. 

Survivor Pool

On the Survivor side of things, Hale got knocked out, picking the Jags to beat the Redskins, which unbelievably didn't happen.  Hale earns 8 points in that as well.

This leaves Folden, Joe, and Eplin fighting it out over the final 3 spots. 

Bowl Pick'em

It's early here,  too early to really do an update with only a handful of games played.  But, I noticed some people didn't change their confidence points for any games this weekend.  You guys know what that means right?  If you don't understand confidence points, please let me know. 

Pro Predictions

I'll go through these in depth either next week or the week after.

Bonus Points

Rob, Gary, & Kemp each earned the half point bonus for this week in pro pick'em. 

Jim earned it the week before.

Rob will earn the 1 point bonus for making thru another 4 weeks in losers pool next week. That's a guarantee.  John can still earn it too next week.   

We also get a bonus point for every 5 points in the predictions.  The way it stands at this moment is as follows for college predictions

Munez 5
Adam 5
Gary 5
Kemp 5
Hale 4
Eplin 4
Joe 4
Jim 4
Rob 3
John 3
Folden 3
Shawn 2


Making our totals for Bonus points as follows: 

Munez 21
Hale 13
Folden 12.5
Joe 12.5
John 12
Rob 11
Kemp 10.5
Adam 10
Jim 10
Gary 9
Eplin 8
Shawn 5

If you want to look at the attachment i put in fantasy football, you can see where we stand in each of the categories.  Anything highlighted in green, means a point value that's set in stone.  Anything clear, is still a variable.

1. Munez 64.5
2. Rob 62
3. Joe 60
4. Folden 57
5. Hale 53.5
6. Adam 46
7. Eplin 37.5
8. John 37
9. Gary 34
10. Shawn 33
11 Jim 30
12. Kemp 27

Compared to last week a few thins have happened.  Munez's lead overall has shrank from 3.5 points to 2.5 points.  Rob is now in sole possession of 2nd, making the fantasy game this weekend even more important.  Joe is 4.5 points off of the lead.  Folden is 7.5 points back and was 7.  Hale gained a point and a half, moving up to 11.5 points out instead of 12.5.

I fell back pretty bad, falling from 15 points back to 18.5.  I'd say I have a comfortable grasp on 6th place right now, noone within 7.5 points of me either way. 

Eplin held steady, letting John fall back 4 points to fall to 8th.  Eplin in 7th.  Gary jumped a couple of points from 31.5 to 34 to get to 9th.  Shawn from 31 to 33 in 10th.  Jim from 31.5 to 30 in 11th.  Finally, Kemp rounding out the bottom with 27 points.

Make your move in pro pick'em and bowl pick'em.  Let's check in next week or the week after.  Ho Ho Ho. 

Thursday, December 6, 2018

Update City

Hey guys, I'm going to jump right into it.  Lots to cover.

Survivor Pool & Losers Pool

There was only one loss this weekend with Joe finishing in 3rd by choosing the Giants to lose.  Folden, Hale, Shawn, and Jim still fight it out for 5th-8th place points and Rob & John still have no losses on the year.

In Survivor Pool Me, Hale, Joe, Eplin, & Folden are still fighting it out for 2nd-6th.

Pro Predictions

The first divisional pro prediction of the year has come in with the Rams winning the NFC West.  The Saints aren't far behind, neither are the Pats.  Lots more to come in that arena

Fantasy Football

The playoffs are set.  As it turned out, neither Munez nor Eplin won their game, so there wasn't a whole of changes.  Rob did jump from 6th to 4th, Folden & Shawn each falling one game.

Here is the field:

1.  Adam
Bye

4. Rob
5. Folden

3. Joe
6. Shawn

2. Hale
Bye

In other news, in the first time in like 35 fantasy leagues I've ever played in, Kemp went 0-13.  Congrats on that I guess.

The point totals for the final standings for the bottom 6 are:

6. Eplin
5. Munez
4. Jim
3. Gary
2. John
1. Kemp

The rest of the point total's will vary based off of playoff results.  Hale & I are guaranteed to finish top 4.

College Pick'em

So, now this is done. Season over.  Well done to Munez, for winning this with a record of 142-112.

Here are the points associated with this.

12 Munez
11 John
10 Folden
9 Kemp
8 Eplin
7 Joe
5.5 Gary
5.5 Rob
4 Shawn
3 Adam
2 Jim
1 Hale

With that, Munez earns 5 bonus points, John 3, and Folden 2.

Additionally, Rob, Munez, Folden, and Shawn earned a bonus point for the most predictions in combined pick'em this weekend.

College Predictions

With only awards season & the final 4 to play out, we have our initial results in for the College Predictions.  I'll go over them in detail where they need detail and gloss over what doesn't.

Final Four

This one's pretty simple.  Everyone but Eplin & John got 4 points for having Georgia and Alabama.  Noone had Oklahoma or Notre Dame.  Eplin didn't have Clemson & John didn't have Alabama. 

The ACC was similar.  Everyone had Clemson but Eplin 
SEC - Shawn, Rob, Kemp, John had Georgia, everyone else had Alabama for the points.
PAC 12 - Everyone but Jim, Folden, & Kemp had Washington
Big 10 - Only Munez & I had Ohio State winning the Big 10.
Big 12 - Only Munez, Kemp, & Hale had Oklahoma winning the Big 12.
AAC - Everyone but me, Folden, and Shawn had UCF winning.
Conf USA - Lane went ahead and Kiffined on us.  We all had FAU & they sucked balls.
MAC - Eplin & Kemp were the only two who took NIU to win the Mac.
MWC - Fresno upset Boise to win the MWC, noone had them.
Sun Belt - App st won, which was picked by Gary, Kemp, John.

Losers of the Conferences

ACC- Obviously, noone predicted Pitt.
SEC - Georgia was correct by everyone but Shawn, Rob, Kemp &, John.
Pac 12 - Utah was picked by Jim, Rob, & Munez
Big 10 - Obviously noone had Northwestern
Big 12 - Texas picked by Hale, Kemp, & Munez
AAU - Memphis was picked by Rob, Munez, Eplin, & Kemp
Conf USA - nada
MAC - Buffalo was picked by Hale
MWC - Noone had Boise
Sunbelt - Louisiana Lafayette was picked as a loser by Jim

Top 10 to fall out of the top 25 was picked correctly by:
Adam - Wisconsin
Folden, Joe, Rob, Gary, Eplin, & Kemp - Auburn

Highest unranked teams in top 25.

These two ended up being Florida & Washington St.  Noone had Wash St, but Florida was chosen by:
Adam, Shawn, Joe, Munez, Gary, and Hale.

This puts our current point totals as below.  In parenthesis.  Depending on how awards go, this could change before we get to the championship games. 

Munez 26
Gary 24
Hale 23
Joe 22
Adam 22
Kemp 19
Eplin 18
Rob 18
Jim 16
Folden 15
John 13
Voyten 11

Bonus Points:  Here is a quick update on the bonus points earned this season.

Adam 5
Jim 5.5
Folden 9.5
Shawn 3
Joe 8.5
Rob 7.5
Gary 3.5
Hale 9
Eplin 4
Kemp 5
John 9
Munez 16

Overall Standings as of Dec 6th

1. Munez 64.5
2. Rob 61
2. Joe 61
4. Folden 57.5
5. Hale 52
6. Adam 49.5
7. John 41
8. Eplin 37.5
t9. Gary 31.5
t9. Jim 31.5
11. Shawn 31
12. Kemp 28




Munez is either leading or has won 4 categories this year.  Unreal.  I likely won't do a point update next week, so don't get the lube out too fast for this one.  There probably won't be enough changes next week to warrant one.  I'll update fantasy & the pools, as well as pro pick'em next week though. 





Tuesday, November 27, 2018

Crunch Time

We've reached championship week in college football, so for the first time I'm able to close out a lot of people's picks.  And, I'll tell you this guys.  We did pretty shitty.  Taking anything Alabama or Clemson out of the mix, and we did below average at best.  I"m attaching the spreadsheet to the the facebook page for you guys to be able to compare.

Amazingly, Munez still has a chance to get all 4 of the final four correct.  He's the only person who can boast that at this point.  John, Kemp, Gary, Rob, and Voyten all have the ability to get 3 but they all have Georgia and Alabama.

Conference champions are similar.  Munez & Kemp have the lead with the ability to get 7 of the 10 conferences correct.  Gary, Shawn, Me, John, & Hale have 6 possibles.  Everyone else has 5 or 4.

The only predictions we can say safely at the moment are the Top 10 team to fall out of the Top 25 prediction.  Those of us that said Miami, Auburn, or Wisconsin are safe.  That's me, Folden, Rob, Joe, Gary, Eplin, & Kemp.

The Coaches that will get fired are pretty much settled as well.

Shawn & I said Lovie Smith, who got an extension, so that ain't happening.

David Beatty, Larry Fedora, DJ Durkin, have gotten everyone else points.  I'm still waiting on a decision to be made about Bob Davie in New Mexico for Kemp.

The finalists for the awards have been released too, but we'll go over those next week.

The Pro Predictions are starting to formulate, but I'll go over those next week too, once we're at the 3/4 point in the season.

College Pick'em is down to the last week of the season.  There are 8 games to choose from, and the separation at the top is only 1 game.  Munez sits at 137, with John at 136.  Folden has an outside chance at 134.  Probably a better chance for 2nd.  Those 3 will finish top 3, with Eplin 4 back of Folden.  The rest of us need to jockey for position for the final standings on this one.

Pro Pick'em is tight as well.  Three games seperate 2nd thru 6th, with Munez sitting in first by a few games.

No changes in the losers or survivor pools last week.  Only a few weeks to go.

Bonus Points

I had the highest score in fantasy earning a bonus point, while Joe was the highest scoring losing team, earning 0.5 bonus points.
Jim & John earned the bonus points for the pick'em last week.  Joe, Rob, & John also earned a bonus point for making it 4 more weeks alive in the losers pool.

So, this may be confusing, but I'll type out the bonus points up to this point, and also attach the spreadsheet.

Fantasy Football Bonus Points

Hale 7
Adam 5
Jim 3.5
Joe 3
Folden 2.5
Munez 2.5
Eplin 2
Rob 1.5
Shawn 1.5
Gary 1
John 1
Kemp 0.5

Pick'em Bonus

Munez 5.5
Kemp 4.5
Folden 4
Gary 2.5
Jim 2
John 2
Eplin 2
Joe 1.5
Rob 1
Hale 1
Shawn 0
Adam 0


Pool Bonus

Rob 3
John 3
Joe 3
Munez 2

Bonus Point Standings

Munez 10
Hale 8
Joe 7.5
Folden 6.5
John 6
Rob 5.5
Jim 5.5
Kemp 5
Adam 5
Eplin 4
Gary 3
Shawn 1.5

After next week I'll be able to mock up our standings overall for the first time, this will be a category inside of this.


This is our final week of the regular season of fantasy football.  And, this shit is full of drama.

Joe put up 160 points and lost, and the things that happened below him were enough to lower his playoff chances.

Folden beat Munez in a tight game that now has him in the playoff picture and Munez outside.

Eplin lost a tight one to Hale knocking him out of the picture.

Rob won his 3rd in a row getting back into the playoffs.

Shawn won on a 97 yard TD run by Lamar Miller on Monday night that not only saved his season, but kept Kemp on skid row at an unreal 0-12.

Here's our final week scenario.

First round byes locked in

Adam 10-2
Hale 9-3

It's pretty amazing at this point in the year that Hale and I are seperated by only 5 points.  We both have 200 points more then the next closest team to us.  Pretty dominant so far by both of our teams.

3.  Joe 7-5
4. Folden 7-5
5. Shawn 7-5
6. Rob 7-5
7. Eplin 6-6
8. Munez 6-6

Joe vs Gary
Folden vs Adam
Shawn vs Hale
Rob vs Kemp
Eplin vs John
Munez vs Jim

It's pretty unreal that none of the 6 of you play each other.  So, scenarios.

Obviously if 3-6 win they are all in.  Or any of them win they are in.

If Joe and/or Folden lose and Eplin wins then the point tiebreaker will come into play. 65 points separates the 3 of them. Eplin passing one of those two is the only way those 2 don't end up in the playoffs.

Shawn & Rob are in a more dangerous situation, as Munez can pass them as well.

If Rob and/or Shawn lose, and Eplin wins, he's in.  He has the tie breaker.  If Munez wins there are 30 points seperating Munez, Shawn, and Rob.

So, Eplin's hoping for 1 of 4 teams to lose, and for him to win.  Munez is hoping for 1 of 2 teams to lose and win his game.

Gary, Jim, and John are still playing for 9th -11th.  Kemp clinched dead last many weeks ago.  I actually will give you guys an overall point update.  Just so you can see how volatile it is.


At this point read the point link in the facebook post.
9 3 32

Obviously most of those numbers can change.  I have 12 for being in first in fantasy but that could go down to 9.  Joe, who has 10 points in fantasy could go down as far as 6 by next week. 

The pools that are still going on, I took the median number of what the person's high and low was.  So for instance, Joe, John, and Rob's range in the losers pool is 12-10, so I gave them each 11 for this projection.  

These scores also don't include college predictions, pro predictions and the bowl games.  

But now you get a sense of how the scoring works.  Where all previous years was an accumulation of points, this is an evolution of points that can change as we go.  The only points set in stone here so far are about half of the losers pool and survivors pools.  And of course Kemp being in dead last in fantasy football.

See you next week.

Tuesday, November 20, 2018

Short Update - 11/20/2018

Short work week, short update.  Let's start with the survivor/ghoul pool.

Some dominoes did fall this weekend, but from only one game.  Denver's come from behind victory over the chargers knocked me and Munez out of the losers pool.  Munez is guarenteed 4th place.  I get 9th place.  Rob & John still haven't lost a game yet, and Joe is now guarenteed at least 3rd.  Here's how the points stand.

12-10 Rob, John, Joe
9 Munez
8-5 Folden, Hale, Jim, Shawn,
4 Adam
3 Eplin
2 Gary
1 Kemp

Survivor claimed a couple of people as well.  Jim & Shawn had the Chargers.

The points in this now stand as follows.

Rob 12
11-7 Adam, Joe, Hale, Eplin, Folden
5.5 - Jim & Shawn
4 Shawn
2.5 Kemp & Munez
1 Gary


In fantasy football we have 2 weeks left in the season.  Here's where things stand

1. Adam 9-2 (clinched playoff spot)  The only person that can stop me from a bye is Joe, and I'd have to lose out and Joe would need to jump the 182 point difference from us.  98% likely I have a bye.

2. Hale 8-3 (unofficially clinched playoff spot)  Hale's in.  I can't see an avenue in which he loses.  He is now 1 win away from clinching the other bye.  Would need to lose out and have Joe win out to lose out on it.

3.  Joe 7-4 (90% chance in playoffs)  Joe has a 1 game lead on everyone and the point tiebreaker on everyone but Eplin.  Even if he loses out, he'd be tied for 6th. 

Here's where things get wild.  4th-8th are all tied at 6-5 with two games to play.  So we'll go over those after we cover the bottom 4 teams.

9-11th Jim, John, Gary.  They are effectively playing for who can have the most points in the final standings.  9th gets 4, where 11th only gets 2. 

12th Kemp.  0-11.  Time to see if he gets a win in his final 2 games.

Back to the teams that are 4th - 8th.  Where do they each stand? along with their remaining schedule

4.  Eplin - 1443 points (Hale, John)
5. Folden 1381 points (Munez, Adam)
6. Munez 1296 points (Folden, Jim)
7. Shawn 1266 points (Kemp, Hale)
8. Rob 1264 points (Jim, Kemp)

Folden & Eplin are in the best shape, having scored as many points as they have.  Truth be told, Munez & Folden are playing in a likely elimination game this weekend.  Let's project.

If Eplin loses to Hale, he'll fall to 6-6.  One of Folden or Munez will be 6-6.  One will be 7-5.  Shawn & Rob each winning would keep all 5 people still in the mix for next week.  Amazingly, none of the 5 play each other in the last week of the season.  There's no way as of now to figure out a likely path for how things will go.  We could end up with 4 6-6 teams or 4 7-5 teams next week.  Some people need to route for Hale to win, some need to route for Jim.  It's pretty much insanity.

If you had to put a gun to my head, based on schedule, and the way things have gone, I'd have Eplin, Munez, and Rob getting the 3 spots.  But, who the hell knows. 

That's it for now. 


Tuesday, November 13, 2018

11-13-18 Update

Tis the season where the updates nearly come weekly.  Let's get into what changed from last week and see where we go.

SURVIVOR POOL

Not much changed this week.  Losers pool everyone was victorious and the survivor pool had a blip on the radar.  Shawn chose the Falcons, which turned out not to be a very good pick, as the Browns decimated them.

So, we still have Rob & John without a loss on the year, Joe & Munez with one loss fighting for the top spot. 

After that we have 5 people fighting for 5th place. 

Survivor Pool is still a race for 2nd place.  7 people remain.  Hale, Folden, Eplin, and Joe are without a strike.  Me, Jim, and Shawn have one strike. 

PREDICTION

I'm predicting a real blood bath this week.  The other shoe has to drop at some point and it feels like this is going to be the week where we see some people lose. 

PICK'EMS

Quick updates on these, the pick'em bonus was a tie between Eplin, Joe, Folden, and Munez this week with 19 picks a piece.

In other news, Wisconsin has now been eliminated from the Big 10.  A lot of people chose them to go far this year, so this has to be the biggest disappointment amongst all the picks so far.

FANTASY FOOTBALL

As I do down the stretch in fantasy season, I want to take the time go through the standings and each person's updated playoff chances.

John beat Kemp, keeping his team's chances alive.

Eplin beat Jim, eliminating Jim from postseasons chances and helping his own. 

Hale scored more than double what Gary did, putting him on the ropes.  Hale earned the full point bonus for most points scored.

I needed a 100 yard, 2 td performance from Matthew Breida on Monday night to eek out a win again Munez. (Munez got the 1/2 point losers bonus)

Rob beat Joe to close in on him and some others in the playoffs. 

Folden beat Shawn, delivering Shawn his 4th loss in 5 games. 

Standings.

1. Adam 8-2
2. Hale 7-3
3. Joe 6-4
4. Folden 6-4
5. Munez 6-4
6. Shawn 6-4
7. Eplin 5-5
8. Rob 5-5
9. Gary 4-6
10. John 4-6
11. Jim 3-7
12. Kemp 0-10

In a side note I don't think we've ever had a team go winless in Football God's fantasy league.

Playoff chances.

Sure thing 99.9%
Adam - I don't think there's a way I can't make the playoffs now, unless if I scored 50 a game, lost out, and a bunch of things went against me.  I'm 2 games up (with tiebreakers) on the BYE.  I'll be playing for that position and guarenteed top 4.

Damn Near sure thing

Hale 97% - Hale would need to lose out at this point, and even that may not be enough to keep him out, as he has the tiebreaker over everyone.  He's 2 games up on the playoffs, and will lock things up for sure with a win this week.

Muddled chances.
Joe & Folden 65%
Shawn & Munez 53%

The difference between the top 2 and bottom 2 here is the points scored.  Eplin is one game back of both of them, and would jump them in the event of a tie.  Joe & Folden are too close in points to Eplin to say who would win the tiebreaker at this point.

Eplin 45%
I think everything that needed said about Eplin's chances were said in the paragraph above.

Rob 33%
Rob's chances improved with a win.  It also helped him that Gary lost, who he jumped, and that 3 of the 6-3 teams lost.  He's still a game back, and even if he ended up in a tie for 6th this week, he'd be losing the tiebreaker.  Rob's going to win out most likely to make the playoffs. 

Gary & John 5%
Gary has a little bit of an edge over John, because of his points scored.  Winning out and hoping for a lot of things to fall their way is the only chances.

Jim & Kemp 0%


Week 11 Schedule

Eplin 5-5 vs Kemp 0-10 
Jim 3-7 vs Shawn 6-4
Rob 5-5 vs Folden 6-4
Adam 8-2 vs Gary 4-6
Joe 6-4 vs Munez 6-4
Hale 7-3 vs John 4-6

If Rob and Jim win, we'll see some big percentage changes next week.  Let's see how it plays out.

Tuesday, November 6, 2018

11-6-18 Update

Hey fellas, 

A few updates to go through.  I'll start with our first correct predictions of the year coming to fruition in the past couple of weeks. 

Hue Jackson of the Cleveland Browns & David Beatty of Kansas both lost their jobs, back on the chain gang again. 

Beatty was a popular choice, chosen by Jim, Folden, Joe, Rob, Munez, Gary, and Eplin.

Jackson, who had won 1 game in 2 seasons as a coach, was a surprisingly scarcer choice.  He was only chosen by Me, Shawn, Joe, and Rob.

That said, let's move on with our lives.  We are now through week 9 in the NFL so past the halfway point, but not at a point where we can really go through any picks yet.  In College though we can talk about what people predicted that's not going to happen. 

The only team that's been marked out for the National Championship is Eplin's pick of Wisconsin.  other than that the rest of us are alive. 

Otherwise, in the final 4, those of us that chose the following teams are eliminated.

Washington - adam, voyten, joe, rob, john, and hale
Wisconsin - Gary, Eplin, Kemp, John, Hale, Joe, Jim
Stanford - Jim & Folden
Michigan St - Folden

In other news, we all picked FAU to win Conference USA and they suck balls.  So, no harm no foul.  A few of us picked Memphis to win the AAC, and they suck as well. 

Rob's pick of Penn St is done, as is Voyten & Folden's Michigan St Big 10 pick. Everyone else's Wisconsin pick should be done, if not for them playing in a subpar division.

In other news, Munez is the only person with all 4 of his teams still in playoff contention with Bama, Ohio St, Georgia, and Clemson.  Ohio St and Georgia are 1 loss away from irrelevancy though.

The next two weeks will obviously shape everything up much clearer.

SURVIVOR/LOSERS POOL

Unbelieveably, we had our first loss in the losers pool in 4 weeks.  It took until last night's game but Dallas blew it against Tennessee, knocking Eplin out.  As of now the only things we know for sure is that Rob, John, Joe, & Munez are fighting for the top 4 spots.  Kemp was in last, Gary 11th, and Eplin 10th. 

This makes Me, Folden, Hale, Shawn, and Jim still fighting it out for 5th-9th place.  Kudos by the way to Joe taking Green Bay last week against the Rams.  I know the Rams were undefeated and the Packers sort of suck, but man what a ballsy pick.

Survivor Pool also gave us another loss last night, with John getting his second strike off of the Cowboys, after his ballsy pick in week 7 of No Pick Made

All we know about Survivor is Rob is in 1st, John 9th, Munez & Hale tied for 10th, and Gary 12th.

That leaves 7 of us fighting it out for 2nd-8th, with me and Jim as the only ones with 1 strike so far. 

College Pick'em

In college pick'em Munez holds onto a slim lead with 104.  Kemp is at 103 right behind him.  Folden and John are only 3 back.  Very tight at the moment.

Gary & Eplin are 5 back, Joe 6 back, and Rob 8 back.  After taht there's a big drop off to us losers at the bottom.

There are only 4 weeks left, so make sure you make your move.


Pro Pick'em

A disaster week of picking knocked me down to 3rd from 1st, and put Rob at 1 and Munez at 2.  Folden, Joe, Gary, and Shawn are all within 5 of first as well.

While we're at it, the bonus point for Week 9 of college and Week 8 of pros went to Hale with 18 correct predictions.

Week 10 of college & week 9 of pros went to Folden & Gary with 20.

Fantasy Football

On fantasy the first thing I want to go over is the bonus points. 

In week 8 Gary earned his 1 point bonus for 4 wins, which Eplin did as well in Week 9.  Hale had the most points scored in week 8, with Shawn having the most points for a losing team.  Hale gets 1 bonus point, Shawn with 0.5

Week 9 had Jim scoring the most points with Kemp getting the half bonus point. 

Standings

Adam 7-2
Hale 6-3
Joe 6-3
Shawn 6-3
Munez 6-3
Folden 5-4
Eplin 4-5
Gary 4-5
Rob 4-5
Jim 3-6
John 3-6
Kemp 0-9

Hale & I sit 1 and 2, having the most points scored in the league.  The fall off after that is about 150 points to the next highest scoring team, which is oddly enough Jim who is in 10th place. 

Let's go through playoff probabilities

Near Certain
Adam 7-2 95%
With a 3 game lead on the playoffs, and tie breakers in most places, i really need just one more victory to lock up a spot out of my last 4.

Close to Near Certain 85%
Joe & Hale 6-3
Hale & Joe are both 2 games up on the playoffs and would have the tie breakers based off of their points against most other teams.  2 wins is a shoe in, but 1 more win could be enough to get them in.

Solid Chances 75%
Shawn 6-3
Munez 6-3

Three weeks ago, Shawn was 5-0 and looked like a lock for the playoffs.  While he's still in good shape with a 2 game lead, he could really benefit from not having a 4th loss out of 5. 
Munez on the other hand has won 2 in a row after hitting 4-3 a couple of weeks ago.  He's not doing himself favors in the tiebreakers, and sits in a near identical situation to Shawn

On Thin Ice 60%
Folden 5-4

Folden has lost 2 games in a row as well, and holds a 1 game lead over the 3 teams behind him.  One week could put a big gap between him and the competition, but it's still a little early to say.  Folden would benefit from the tiebreaker over Gary & Rob, but not Eplin up to now.

Fringe 40-45%
Eplin 4-5
Gary 4-5
Rob 4-5

It's a little less than a coin flip to me that one of these 3 will make the playoffs.  The best they can do now is just win hope a couple teams in front of them hit the skids.

Last Chance 15%
Jim 3-6

Jim is 3rd and points and 10th in the standings.  An unfortunate occurance that has effected most of us at one time or another.  Jim's one big leg up is that he has scored a shit load of points.  He won last week and will need to finish the season on a 5 game losing streak to get in.  He'd also need a little help

Probably Done 5% 
John 3-6

John has the same record as Jim, but his point total for the tiebreaker is dead last.  He'll need to win out and get a lot of help to be solely in 6th place.

Def Done -125%

Kemp 0-9

Fournette gain you a win?


Week 10 Schedule

This is the week that's going to set things apart

Adam 7-2 vs Munez 6-3
Shawn 6-3 vs Folden 5-4

If you're trying to jump people into a playoff spot this may be the week you route for me and Shawn.  A loss for Folden will bring him back to the pack, opening up the 6th playoff spot.  A loss by Munez and wins by others puts that 5th spot back into play too. 

Joe 6-3 vs Rob 4-5
Hale 6-3 vs Gary 4-5

These aren't elimination games, but they're close to it.  Wins by Rob & Gary, Shawn and Me, would bring the pack up to the people in the playoffs.  This would result in 3rd through 8th being only a game apart.  The other way around and we can start penciling in playoff spots.

John 3-6 vs Kemp 0-9

Not a lot of excitement here but John's staying alive.

Jim 3-6 vs Eplin 4-5
This game will pretty much position Eplin or Jim going forward.  With a win Jim could jump as high as 7th place.  With a win he's likely done.  With a win, Eplin could find himself in the playoff picture by the end of the week.  Lots of implications. 


Next week I'll be doing a short update to update fantasy & survivor/losers pool.  Until then, have a nice week. 


Tuesday, October 23, 2018

Update Time

Here we are, time for another update.  Time to fill you guys in on the rancid comings & goings of the football season.  Let's start with the Losers & Surivivor Pool.

Survivor Pool:

There have been a few developments since Rob won the Survivor pool in week 3 & Gary lost the Survivor pool in week 2.

Munez & Kemp are now elminated, having ate a big bowl of shit  served to them by Brock Osweiler & the Dolphins in week 6. 

I ate that same bowl of shit, but that was only my first strike.  Jim has also gotten a first strike, picking Tennessee in week 5.  John has one strike too, having made the interesting decision to chose noone in week 7. 

That puts Kemp & Munez tied for 10th, which would give them 2.5 points each toward their overall score.  Here how the Survivor Pool looks right now, by points.

Rob 12

Everyone else ?

Kemp 2.5
Munez 2.5
Gary 1

I've extended the Survivor Pool season through the playoffs. 

Losers Pool

After 7 weeks, John & Rob are still sitting without a loss.  They've both used nearly the same teams up to this point, with Rob having used Oakland & John using Seattle.  When looking down the list of teams used throughout all of us, most of have used the bad teams up to this point. 

This means that we should start to see some heads rolling in the next couple of weeks. 

Standings in the losers pool based off of points

Rob, John, Joe, Munez 12-9 (however they finish)

Everyone else 8-3

Gary 2
Kemp 1

rest to be determined.

Pro Pick'em

In the final stages of Rob's dominance we'll move onto the Pro Pick'em

After 7 weeks Rob is holding a slim lead for first place.  He's holding out with 53 with me right behind him at 52.  Munez in 3rd at 51.

After that there's a slight drop to Shawn, Gary, Hale, and Folden, until we get down to the bottom where Eplin is hanging tight at 37.

Lots of season left to go, but for those back by double digit's maybe time to hunker down and start making some better picks.

College Pick 'em

The College Pick'em is still ruled by Kemp as it has been all year.  Kemp has a 2 game lead over Munez, before it opens up a little. 

There are 6 points seperating the McLanes & Kemp, and Folden & Gary are right below them. 

Only 5 games seperate 3rd thru 9th though, so there's going to be lots of movement. 


Fantasy Football

Seven games into the season and it's a little wild this year.  Here are your standings.

Shawn 6-1
Adam 5-2
Joe 5-2
Folden 5-2
Hale 4-3
Munez 4-3
Rob 4-3
Gary 3-4
Jim 2-5
Eplin 2-5
John 2-5

A few notes. 

1. Shawn is in 1st place in the league despite being 7th in pts scored.  This is because he has had 50 less points scored against him all year then any other team. 

2.  Hale is 4-3 despite scoring 70 more points then anyone else in the league. 

3.  Folden has the league's longest winning streak at 4 games.

4.  Jim is 2-5 after starting 0-5, and scoring the 5th most points in teh league this year. 

There's a 4-3 team in Rob who is currently out of the playoffs.  Gary is one game out of the playoffs at this point, which isn't bad considering he's been starting 2 Redskins rb's most games this season. 

After that there is a drop off to three 2-5 teams, meaning that with 6 games to play, there isn't a ton of room for these teams to mess up before they are out of the playoff hunt. 

Kemp is pretty much done at 0-7.  Will just want to jockey for position for points at this point.

This is our week 8 schedule and the potential fall out. 

Joe 5-2 vs Eplin 2-5
Folden 5-2 vs John 2-5
Hale 4-3 vs Jim 2-5

These three games have similar story lines.  The 2-5 teams are trying to gain some ground.  They each need to it against pretty strong teams.  If all 3 of the 2-5 teams were to win, then we'd have a much more interesting 2nd half of the season. 

Gary 3-4 vs Kemp 0-7

This one is Kemp playing spoiler.  Gary could potentially go 4-4 without Leveon Bell playing a down, and Rob Gronkowski having a pretty lackluster season.  Not bad when those are his top 2 draft picks.

Shawn 6-1 vs Adam 5-2
This game pretty much will decide who is in 1st place come next week.  With a win, Shawn puts himself as a near certainty for the playoffs.  With a win, I would go to 6-2, and Shawn could drop down as far as 4th.  Shawn's only in any real danger if he were to lose 3 in a row.  His points for aren't going to win him any tiebreakers at this point.

Rob 4-3 vs Munez 4-3
This game is interesting, because the loser will fall to 4-4 in 7th place.  If Gary wins, and if any of the 2-5 teams win, that will make one more team closer to the out of the playoff teams to jump. 


Bonus Points

So, here's a key on bonus points that have been won this season so far. 
1 point for highest point total weekly in fantasy
0.5 point for highest losing score
1 point for winning the combined pro and college pick'em
1 point for having 4 fantasy wins. 
1 point for surviving losers pool

Here what each person has. 




Adam 3
Jim 1.5
Folden 4
Shawn 1
Joe 4
Rob 3.5
Gary 1.5
Hale 4
Eplin 1
Kemp 3.5
John 2
Munez 6.5

You can discern the order that each person is in from that. 

So, what does this really mean.  I mean really?  Not a whole lot of information is out yet.  And, as opposed to most years, where we have a rolling point total and everything gets turned upside down in November, in this case we're just sort of watching and waiting. 

I'd love to go into detail about how each person has gotten their point total so I'm out of time for now at work.  I have it on a spread sheet, let me know if you want to see it. 

I'll try to get another one in two weeks.  Talk college football for the stretch run.